You’re going to pick the Kentucky Derby winner this year.

We all are.

All we need to do is find the right clue, or the right system, or the right expert.

Will the winner be determined, or divined, by the horse’s name, silk colors or jockey? (You could do worse than “Big Money” Mike Smith, the Hall-of-Famer who will be riding So Happy.)

Or will the winner emerge from the Beyer Speed Figures, a rating system devised by journalist and handicapper Andrew Beyer. (If so, your horse is Further Ado, whose 106 Beyer Speed Figure from the Blue Grass Stakes last month is the highest in the field.)

Or maybe you got a connection to Bill Benter, the former physicist whose computer algorithm has reportedly earned him $1 billion in horse betting.

But with time running out, our focus is on four handicappers.

The importance of horse psychology

Kerry M. Thomas, an equine behavior specialist, studies racehorses in search of something most bettors probably overlook.

The horse’s psychological profile. Preferably one that can help withstand the rigors of racing.

“I really don’t look at anything physical before I look at anything psychological because the physical data can trick you,” Thomas told USA TODAY Sports. “Just look at how it is with human athletes. If you can’t handle the stress, I don’t care how talented you are.”

Stress is Inevitable during the Kentucky Derby, with up to 20 horses racing, often in close quarters. Then what kicks in his bachelor herd mentality, when those 20 horses break into several miniature herds, according to Thomas.

“The field (of horses) breaks into pieces mentally,” he said. “It looks like a big massive chaos, but psychologically that doesn’t matter at all, because when they get to moving, they’re going to pick out one or two dudes that they’re going to go with or fight with.”

The dynamics test a horse’s psychology, and an understanding the psychological profile of the horses can lead Thomas to his pick for the Kentucky Derby winner: So Happy.

“He’s on this really good emerging psychological growth pattern,” Thomas explained, “seasoning in the right direction at the right time.”

Data-driven handicapping

About a decade ago, Alexa Zepp said she attended her first horse betting contest as a guest.  Soon she was hooked.

“I got pretty good at it and started traveling all over the country, competing in these tournaments,” Zepp, 30, told USA TODAY Sports. “And yeah, I did pretty good. I was able to put a down payment on my house and get a hot tub from gambling winnings.”

Her full-time gig is with America’s Best Racing with a focus on sponsorships and broadcast.  But she’s still committed to handicapping

“I’m a data-driven person,” she said. “I have a (computer) program that I use, my own algorithm program for racing that takes all kinds of factors into consideration, thousands of factors about all the horses.”

She said she also reads the Daily Racing Form.

“I know a lot of people bet jockeys, but I undervalue who’s riding,” Zepp said. “I look more at pedigree and distance in my program.”

Like Thomas, Zepp also takes herd mentality into consideration as she settles on her Kentucky Derby pick: So Happy.

“So Happy is going to be fairly forwardly placed and has tactical speed and deal with whatever comes,” Zepp said.

The telltale stride

Maggie Wolfendale said there’s a unique challenge to handicapping horse races.

“Horses can’t speak to us, so we have to try to read them,” she told USA TODAY Sports.

The daughter of a trainer, Wolfendale, 39, is a paddock analyst and host for the New York Racing Association. That means much of her work takes place in the paddock, where the horses are stabled and paraded before heading to the starting gate.

“A lot can be read by what their coat looks like,” Wolfendale said. “I often talk about dapples, which are like the round things on horses that just indicate good internal health, how rich and hydrated they look. Obviously they’re athletes, you want them to be hydrated. And you also look for fitness levels, how defined they look, how strong they look.”

When handicapping the Kentucky Derby and classic distance races, Wolfendale said, she pays close attention to something else, too.

“Usually it’s about horses that have long strides,” she said. “I would say is what it all boils down to.”

And that leads her to Further Ado, Wolfendale’s pick to win the Kentucky Derby.

“Just has a massive stride,” she said.

The Haiku Handicapper

Joe Nevills, the Haiku Handicapper, has picked his Kentucky Derby winner: Danon Bourbon, a Kentucky-bred horse stabled in Japan.

But it’s too early to get to the poetry, with Nevills, 39, confessing, “I don’t feel great about” the pick.

What Nevills likes: Danon Bourbon is bred for classic distance, with American bloodlines “leaning toward distance acumen.” Also, in Japan horses run in very deep sand. “So running 1 ¼ miles on the firmer dirt course at Churchill Downs should be like running on an Olympic track after training on the beach,” Nevills said.

What Nevills likes less: The underwhelming level of competition Danon Bourbon has faced. Using a college sports analogy, Nevills suggested the horse from Japan could be a MAC champion ready for a Big Ten beatdown.

“Do you see why I have to do these in haiku?” said Nevills, bloodstock editor for the Paulick Report.

For each Kentucky Derby entrant, Nevills writes a haiku poems – a Japanese poem consisting of 17 syllables in lines of five, seven, and five syllables.

Japanese horse. Japanese poem.

Gets stronger in stretchAmerican classic bloodThis could be the year

And dear reader, this could be your year.

HOUSTON — Kevin Durant’s first Houston Rockets season did not go as intended.

On Friday night at Toyota Center, while his teammates attempted to force a decisive Game 7 against the Los Angeles Lakers, Durant sat on the bench in street clothes with a sprained left ankle. He could only watch as the Lakers shifted into cruise control and the Rockets staggered toward the end of their season.

When the final buzzer sounded on the Lakers’ 98-78 win, the Rockets were right back where they were at the end of last season: exiting the playoffs in the first round.

In Houston’s locker room after the game, players exchanged hugs and gifted each other jerseys, relics of a season that failed to meet the raised expectations set when the Rockets traded last summer for Durant, who was injured for all but one playoff game against the Lakers.

The Rockets have suffered first-round playoff exits in back-to-back seasons, both in series where coach Ime Udoka said it felt like his team “got behind the eight ball.”

Against the Lakers, who were missing Luka Doncic, the Rockets lost the first three games – two without Durant – but avoided elimination by winning the next two games to force the series back to Houston for Game 6. Friday’s blowout 20-point loss was the Rockets’ lowest-scoring game of the season and among the lowest-scoring playoff games in franchise history.

Udoka highlighted the growth of Houston’s young core, including the group that started the last three games of the series against the Lakers – Alperen Şengün, Amen Thompson, Reed Sheppard, Jabari Smith Jr. and Tari Eason – and said he was proud of his team’s resilience to battle back in the series. But he also acknowledged that change is necessary going forward.

“We do need to address some needs,” Udoka said. “The lack of shooting at times, whether it’s a backup point guard or our young guys did enough this year to kind of run that with Fred (VanVleet) back. And so we’ll take a look at all those things, I think, and have some very interesting conversations on having a little bit of more of a mix instead of some duplicates out there.”

The Rockets’ fate this season was accompanied by plenty of hypotheticals. What if Durant had been healthy in the playoffs? What if the Rockets had not lost VanVleet, their starting point guard, and center Steven Adams to injuries earlier in the season?

Şengün said none of those questions crossed his mind in the dying moments of Houston’s season.

“We cannot think about (that) stuff. Whoever is in the court, we fight with them,” Şengün said. “Losing them, it wasn’t good, but you stay with it. The goal is always same: just fight, go to the end. We did it with the young guys, including myself in the young guys, too.”

In the end, the Rockets’ main issues boiled down to offense. In the playoff series against the Lakers, Houston shot 46.2% from the field in its two wins and 38.6% in its four losses. The Game 3 loss was particularly excruciating, a last-minute meltdown that felt achingly familiar to anyone who watched the Rockets struggle throughout the season to execute at the end of games.

In Game 6, the Rockets didn’t grab offensive rebounds at their typical rate and reverted to bad habits that plagued them earlier in the season. When the Lakers switched, the Rockets failed to create advantages and became stagnant. The ball stuck. Isolation play prevailed.

“It’s a team thing. It’s not any blame to them (players) or myself,” Udoka said. “It’s a little combination of both, no doubt, understanding what works for us, what’s worked well, and then not deviating from that. So on me to get them into the sets, on them to run them and do the things we worked on leading into the series.”

Udoka reportedly signed a six-year contract extension last summer. Udoka said he and Rockets general manager Rafael Stone will sit down “ASAP” to discuss the roster.

The Rockets have eight players under contract for next season, including Durant, but the team has plenty of decisions to make this summer. Thompson is extension-eligible ahead of his fourth NBA season while Eason, who was drafted by the Rockets with the 17th overall pick in 2022, will become a restricted free agent this offseason.

“I was drafted here, I’ve grown up here, my family’s here,” Eason said. “I love Houston. As far as everything else, God knows.”

When the Rockets were eliminated by the Golden State Warriors in last season’s playoffs, it was clear that Houston lacked a go-to scorer to catalyze the offense. Durant was brought in to solve that problem. This season, it’s not as easy to identify one main area of need, Smith said.

“I ain’t gonna say we need to make a trade or go out and get somebody, you know what I’m saying? I just think everything we need is in house,” Smith said. “Everything that we need is on the bench, coaching us. Everything we need is on the bench behind us, coaching. I think we got it all, but it’s just on us to not have those mental lapses where we lose leads in the fourth quarter early in the season, where you have random three-game losses and stuff like that.”

He continued, “I think maturity’s a big part of it but I think if everybody’s going into the offseason and do what they’ve been doing – that’s improving every year, get better, come back a little smarter, come back a little stronger, a little older – I think everything we need is in house right in front of us.”

Whether the Rockets decide to run it back or go for a major change, the sting of how the season ended is sure to linger.

“Back-to-back first-round exits, it’s just – it’s rough,” Thompson said. “It’s motivation, for sure. I feel like I’m going to be thinking about this all summer.”

Former Formula One driver Alex Zanardi, who lost both legs in a racing crash and went on to win Paralympic gold medals, has died at the age of 59, his family said on Saturday, May 2.

Zanardi, from Bologna, made his F1 debut in 1991 and later achieved success in the CART series in the United States, winning back-to-back championships in 1997 and 1998.

His life took a dramatic turn in September 2001 when he was involved in a high-speed crash during a CART race in Germany that led to the amputation of both legs.

Zanardi refused to end his sporting career and instead turned to para-cycling, becoming one of Italy’s most successful Paralympic athletes.

He won four gold medals and two silver medals at the 2012 London and 2016 Rio Games.

“It is with deep sorrow that the family announces the passing of Alessandro Zanardi, which occurred suddenly yesterday evening, 1 May,” his family said in a statement.

“Alex passed away peacefully, surrounded by the love of his family and friends.

“The family would like to express their heartfelt thanks to all those who are showing their support at this time and asks that their grief and privacy be respected during this period of mourning.”

Zanardi also claimed 12 World Championship gold medals in para-cycling and became a powerful advocate for athletes with disabilities and a source of inspiration for many.

His life suffered another blow in 2020 when he was seriously injured after being struck by a truck while competing in a charity para-cycling relay in Tuscany.

He sustained serious head injuries and spent years undergoing treatment.

“Italy loses a great champion and an extraordinary man, capable of turning every trial of life into a lesson in courage, strength, and dignity,” Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said.

“Alex Zanardi knew how to get back in the game every time, facing even the toughest challenges with determination, clarity, and a strength of spirit that was truly exceptional.”

The International Automobile Federation said Zanardi’s journey had “made him one of sport’s most admired competitors and an enduring symbol of courage and determination.”

F1 President and CEO Stefano Domenicali remembered Zanardi for his “extraordinary strength”.

“He faced challenges that would have stopped anyone, yet he continued to look forward, always with a smile and a stubborn determination that inspired us all. While his loss is profoundly felt, his legacy remains strong,” he added.

The Italian Olympic Committee called for a minute’s silence at all sports events in Italy over the weekend in his honour.

“We’ve lost a great champion and a great man, who was capable of bouncing back multiple times when faced with life’s difficulties,” CONI president Luciano Buonfiglio said.

The Cincinnati Reds pitching staff accomplished something Saturday that hadn’t been done in more than 40 years.

Two Reds pitchers walked seven consecutive Pittsburgh Pirates hitters in the second inning of a May 2 game at PNC Park, tying an MLB record and turning what was already a rough afternoon into a historically bad day.  

Starter Rhett Lowder and reliever Connor Phillips combined to walk seven consecutive Pirates with one out in the second inning. That included issuing the final four walks with the bases loaded. Between them, they threw 42 pitches and only 11 for strikes, according to MLB.com.  

Lowder struck out leadoff hitter Oneil Cruz and then it went off the rails from there.

Lowder issued the first three walks before being pulled for Phillips. He came in with the bases loaded and walked four in a row, each one forcing in a run. Reliever Sam Moll finally stopped the bleeding. Entering the game with the bases loaded, he got both catcher Henry Davis and Cruz, batting for the second time that inning, to ground out.  

After that inning, the Pirates led 10-3.

The MLB record for consecutive walks had last been set on May 25, 1983, when the Pirates walked seven consecutive Atlanta Braves batters. One of the pitchers that day happened to be named Bob Walk. On April 27, 1994, the Seattle Mariners walked six in a row, hit a batter and then walked the next batter in a 12-2 loss to the Yankees.  

The Reds entered play Saturday having walked 11.6% of batters they faced this season, which was the fifth highest in baseball. Saturday, they showed just how much they struggle with the strike zone.  

Lowder, 24, came in 3-1 with a 3.18 ERA, which ballooned to 5.09 after that inning. Phillips had been one of the more reliable arms in Cincinnati’s bullpen before Saturday’s outing. He had walked just 15 in 17 appearances before Saturday.  

Golden Tempo crossed the finish line Saturday at Churchill Downs, winning the 152nd Kentucky Derby and immediately turning attention to a question that has gone unanswered for eight years: Can he win the Triple Crown? 

That starts in two weeks with The Preakness Stakes. 

The last horse to win the Triple Crown – the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes – was Justify in 2018. Since then, seven consecutive Kentucky Derby winners have failed to complete the sweep. Four of those horses never even tried, skipping the Preakness Stakes entirely.  

Last year’s winner, Sovereignty, trained by Bill Mott, bypassed the Preakness just days after winning the Derby, citing the horse’s long-term interests. Since 2019, four Kentucky Derby winners have not raced in the Preakness, a shift driven by modern training strategies that prioritize spacing races further apart. Sovereignty went on to win the Belmont Stakes and earned Horse of the Year honors, validating Mott’s decision, but also deepening the debate about whether the Triple Crown format needs to change.  

The question now is whether Golden Tempo’s connections will take the shot.  

When is the Preakness? Triple Crown race schedule

If they do, the Preakness is May 16, just two weeks after the Derby. For the first time in the race’s history, it will be held at Laurel Park in Laurel, Maryland, while its traditional home at Pimlico Race Course undergoes a $400 million renovation. Post positions will be drawn May 11. 

If Golden Tempo can win that, the Belmont Stakes awaits on June 6 at Saratoga Racecourse in Saratoga Springs, New York. The 158th Belmont Stakes will again be run at 1 ¼ miles rather than its traditional 1 ½ miles due to Saratoga’s track configuration. There is a $2 million purse on the line in the third and final Belmont Stakes to be held in Saratoga. The newly rebuilt Belmont Park is set to reopen in September of 2026.  

The Triple Crown is one of the hardest achievements in American sports. Only 13 horses have won it in all of racing history. Sir Barton became the first Triple Crown winner in 1919, though the term itself did not come into common usage until 1930. Sportswriter Charles Hatton coined the phrase after Gallant Fox swept all three races. The most recent winners are American Pharoah in 2015 and Justify in 2018. The three-year gap was a surprise, considering the 37-year drought between Affirmed in 1978 and American Pharoah.  

There have been voices in the sport calling for a new schedule, which would make it easier for horses to compete in the Triple Crown. After Sovereignty won the Preakness in 2025, owner Mike Repole proposed moving the Belmont to second in the Triple Crown order to keep more top horses in the series. 

One of the most exciting moments for a basketball franchise is if they learn they have won the NBA draft lottery, especially when it’s unexpected.

Lottery odds formatting have changed several times since the system began in 1985 when the New York Knicks selected Patrick Ewing. In the future, the format might change again to help prevent tanking from league bottom-dwellers.

The upcoming 2026 NBA Draft Lottery is on May 10 in Chicago and will determine which teams will have a chance to draft top prospects like AJ Dybantsa, Cameron Boozer, Darryn Peterson and Caleb Wilson.

14 teams will have a chance at No. 1 overall and with that in mind, here are all of the lottery winners who received the pick despite less than 10 percent odds.

1. Orlando Magic (1993)

Player: Chris Webber

Record: 41-41

Odds: 1.52% (11th)

This pick was included in a trade to the Golden State Warriors involving Penny Hardaway and future first-round picks.

2. Chicago Bulls (2008)

Player: Derrick Rose

Record: 33-49

Odds: 1.70% (9th)

Rose, who is originally from Chicago, was named 2009 NBA Rookie of the Year and won NBA MVP in 2011.

3. Cleveland Cavaliers (2014)

Player: Andrew Wiggins

Record: 33-49

Odds: 1.70% 9th

Before his rookie season, he was traded to the Minnesota Timberwolves for a deal involving Kevin Love. He was named 2015 NBA Rookie of the Year.

4. Dallas Mavericks (2025)

Player: Cooper Flagg

Record: 39-43

Odds: 1.80% (11th)

This was shortly after Luka Dončić was sent to the Los Angeles Lakers for a trade involving Anthony Davis. Flagg was recently named 2026 NBA Rookie of the Year.

5. Los Angeles Clippers (2011)

Player: Kyrie Irving

Record: 32-50

Odds: 2.80% (8th)

Before the draft, the Clippers traded the rights to this pick to the Cleveland Cavaliers. Irving was named 2012 NBA Rookie of the Year and won a championship with the Cavaliers in 2016.

6. Atlanta Hawks (2024)

Player: Zaccharie Risacher

Record: 36-46

Odds: 3.00% (10th)

Risacher was named first-team NBA All-Rookie and is a contributor for the Hawks in the 2026 NBA postseason.

7. New Jersey Nets (2000)

Player: Kenyon Martin

Record: 31-52

Odds: 4.40% (7th)

Martin played four seasons for the Nets, earning an NBA All-Star nod in 2004.

8. Portland Trail Blazers (2007)

Player: Greg Oden

Record: 32-50

Odds: 5.30% (7th)

The big man was selected one pick before Kevin Durant and he played just three seasons in the NBA.

9. New Orleans Pelicans (2019)

Player: Zion Williamson

Record: 33-49

Odds: 6.00% (7th)

This pick was shortly after the Pelicans traded Anthony Davis to the Los Angeles Lakers. Williamson is a two-time NBA All-Star who has not yet made the playoffs.

10. Milwaukee Bucks (2005)

Player: Andrew Bogut

Record: 30-52

Odds: 6.30% (6th)

The Australian big man was named first-team NBA All-Rookie and played for the Bucks for seven seasons.

11. Toronto Raptors (2006)

Player: Andrea Bargnani

Record: 27-55

Odds: 8.80% (5th)

The Italian forward was named first-team NBA All-Rookie and played for the Raptors for seven seasons.

12. Houston Rockets (2002)

Player: Yao Ming

Record: 28-54

Odds: 8.90% (5th)

The Chinese big man played eight seasons for the Rockets and made the NBA All-Star team each campaign.

13. Golden State Warriors (1995)

Player: Joe Smith

Record: 26-56

Odds: 9.40% (5th)

Smith made first-team NBA All-Rookie and was traded to the Philadelphia 76ers midway through his third season with the Warriors.

The biggest stories, every morning. Stay up-to-date on all the key sports developments by subscribing to USA TODAY Sports’ newsletter.

Nearly five months after a plane crash killed seven people including a NASCAR legend, two lawsuits have been filed in connection to the tragedy in North Carolina.

Former race car driver Greg Biffle, his wife Cristina Biffle, their 5-year-old son Ryder and Greg Biffle’s daughter Emma, 14, died after the Cessna C550 jet crashed in Statesville on Dec. 18. Dennis Rollin Dutton, his son Jack Dutton and his employee and friend Craig Wadsworth also died in the late morning crash near the Statesville Regional Airport, about 45 miles north of Charlotte.

Filed in Iredell County Superior Court on behalf of the Dutton estate, the lawsuits each seek $15 million in damages, according to court documents obtained by ESPN and local station WBTV.

According to the suits, the outlets reported Biffle owned the Cessna 550 plane that crashed, and was “responsible for maintenance, operation and safety.”

USA TODAY has requested a copy of the suit, and reached out to the attorney representing the Dutton family.

What caused the plane crash that killed Greg Biffle?

The official cause of the crash remained under investigation by the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) on May 1.

The plane was bound for Florida but attempted to return to the regional airport soon after takeoff in severe weather, according to FlightAware, which tracks flight paths and previous USA TODAY reporting.

The aircraft was registered to a company tied to Biffle, and according to an autopsy obtained by USA TODAY, Dutton, an experienced pilot, is presumed to have piloted the plane at the time of the crash.

According to the preliminary NTSB report Jack Dutton was sitting in the co-pilot seat, and was assisting when the plane crashed, but wasn’t qualified to fly the plane.

Where did the plane crash happen?

The crash took place around 10:15 a.m. ET while the pilot attempted to land at the airport, about 40 miles north of Charlotte, according to local officials and the Federal Aviation Administration.

NTSB senior accident investigator Dan Baker said the jet took off from runway 2A and was in the air 10 minutes before it crashed and struck a set of trees and a runway fence before coming to rest.

Anyone who saw the plane crash, or with video of the crash, is asked to contact NTSB via email at witness@ntsb.gov.

Natalie Neysa Alund is a senior reporter for USA TODAY. Reach her at nalund@usatoday.com and follow her on X @nataliealund

One of the features of the transfer portal is players from smaller schools and conferences get to prove themselves at the mid-major level and earn an opportunity to step up a level of competition.

Michigan’s MVP Yaxel Lendeborg was a mid-major find from UAB. Oscar Cluff went from South Dakota State to Purdue and was a key cog for the Boilermakers. Robert Morris transfer Alvaro Folgueiras was a March star for Iowa.

You get the idea.

So who is next in line to take their big game to a bigger stage?

College basketball transfer portal best pickups from mid-major schools

Cruz Davis, Texas Tech (Hofstra)

Texas Tech landed its Christian Anderson replacement in former Hofstra guard Cruz Davis, the CAA Player of the Year in 2026. Davis averaged 20.1 points with 4.7 assists last season, and was No. 37 in USA TODAY Sports’ transfer portal player rankings before committing.

The Plano, Texas product fared well vs Power conference teams last season, scoring 17 vs. UCF, 36 vs. Pitt and 22 vs. Syracuse, and will be a key piece to Grant McCasland’s Red Raiders reload without Anderson gone and JT Toppin coming back from an ACL injury.

Paulius Murauskas, Arizona State (Saint Mary’s)

The 6-8 Lithuanian was ranked No. 7 in USA TODAY Sports’ portal player rankings after averaging 18.4 points and 7.6 rebounds per game for a 27-win Saint Mary’s team last season. Unsurprisingly, the first-team All-West Coast Conference pick followed former Gaels coach Randy Bennett to Arizona State, where he was hired to replace Bobby Hurley.

Alex Wilkins, Kentucky (Furman)

From a zero-star recruit to Big Blue Nation in the span of a year. Wilkins had a standout freshman season for the Southern Conference champions and led the league in field goals made. The 6-5 guard averaged a team-high 17.8 points and 4.7 assists per game. In the NCAA Tournament, the No. 28 player in USA TODAY Sports’ portal rankings showed he could compete against elite competition, scoring 21 points in a competitive game against eventual national runner-up UConn. With three years of eligibility, he’ll be more than just a quick rental, which will help Mark Pope try to find some much-needed stability in Lexington.

Ryan Sabol, Providence (Buffalo)

If Lundblade was one of the top available shooters in the portal, Sabol quite possibly was the top shooter available in the portal. Sabol’s 3.8 made 3s per game were third-most in the nation, and he did so at 39.9% clip.

He averaged 18.8 points per game and had 14 games where he hit at least five 3-pointers. He’ll be a good fit for Bryan Hodgson’s system in Providence. Hodgson’s South Florida team led the American Conference in scoring last season and was second in the league in made 3s.

Tyler Lundblade, Tennessee (Belmont)

The reigning Missouri Valley Conference player of the year was one of the top shooters available in the portal and fills a clear need for the Vols, who need to replace their top six scorers from this past season. The former walk-on made 40.6% of his 3-pointers despite having a high shooting volume, with 8.8 attempts per game from beyond the arc. Tennessee’s top returning 3-point shooters (Ethan Burg and Troy Henderson) had 15 makes all season.

Terrence Hill Jr., Tennessee (VCU)

Let’s stay on Rocky Top. The sophomore had a breakout season in 2025-26, averaging 15 points a game on 46.6% shooting. He showed he won’t be scared by brand names after scoring 34 points against North Carolina in the Rams’ first round in the NCAA Tournament.

Hill only started two games for VCU last season, but beginning in January, he routinely played 30-plus minutes, providing a spark off the bench.

Drew Scharnowski, Duke (Belmont)

Duke had a clear need in the post with Cameron Boozer headed for the NBA Draft lottery and Maliq Brown out of eligibility. The 6-9 Scharnowski could slot alongside returning Blue Devils center Patrick Ngongba II or provide valuable frontcourt depth. A first-team All-MVC pick, Scharnowski was the No. 50 player in USA TODAY’s portal rankings after averaging 10.7 points, six rebounds and 2.6 assists per game as a sophomore for a Belmont team that went 26-6. He was a strong presence down low, too, with 1.3 blocks per game. At the start of the portal process, the prevailing thought was Scharnowski would follow former Belmont coach Casey Alexander to Kansas State. The big man set his sights higher and will test himself in the Blue Devils crucible.

Tyrone Riley IV, Oregon (San Francisco)

Riley will get plenty of run as the Ducks return just one player from last season’s roster.

The 6-6 junior wing has 65 starts under his belt and averaged 12.2 points, 4.8 rebounds and one steal a game last season for the Dons. He shot 47.2% from the field and 36.8% from 3 on his way to a second-team All-WCC selection.

In games against Power conference foes Minnesota, Colorado and Mississippi State (OK, maybe not a murderer’s row), Riley averaged 14 ppg, and he put up 17 points on Saint Louis and 16 vs. Gonzaga.

Jaquan Johnson, Iowa State (Bradley)

How would Iowa State replace Tamin Lipsey? The Cyclones point guard started all 137 games he played for ISU and left as the school’s all-time steals leader and fourth in career assists.

Enter, Johnson. About as seamless of a fit as you could hope for if you’re the Cyclones. He took an enormous leap from his freshman to his sophomore season, improving his scoring average from 6.6 to 16.9 points per game to help him earn first-team All-MVC honors, MVC most improved player and all-defensive team honors (thanks to his 2.6 steals per game).

He is only 5-11, which could cause some problems against bigger, more athletic competition in a major conference, but his all-around production is impressive, with 3.9 rebounds and 3.6 assists.

Gavin Doty, Syracuse (Siena)

Doty is following Gerry McNamara from Siena to Syracuse and did just about everything he could to try to pull off a stunning 16-over-1 upset over Duke in the NCAA Tournament, scoring a team-high 21 points in a 71-65 first-round loss. The 6-5 sophomore led the Saints in scoring at 18 points per game and was an excellent rebounder for someone his size, pulling down a team-high 6.9 boards per game.

He won’t be an unknown to McNamara, and his near-immediate commitment to the Orange says a lot about his coach’s belief that Doty can scale up from the MAAC to the ACC.

The nets have been cut down in Indianapolis with Michigan defeating Connecticut to win the national title and close the book on the men’s college basketball season. After a short breath, it’s already time to start looking ahead to the 2026-27 campaign and determine which teams are the contenders to play in the Final Four in Detroit next April.

There’s a lot in flux before we get to the start of the season in November, making the predictions for next season challenging. The biggest factor to weigh is the impact of the transfer portal, which officially opens Tuesday, April 7. However, we already know many of the major players moving places. There’s also the matter of the uncertain futures for several candidates for the NBA draft. In those instances, we’ve assumed upper echelon will depart but left open the door for others to stay.

We’ve done our best to put all information together and release our too-early Top 25 ranking with a heavy dose of power schools dominating.

1. Michigan State

Despite losing twin big men Jaxon Kohler and Carson Cooper, this could be a special season for the Spartans if – as expected – it brings back point guard Jeremy Fears Jr. and forward Coen Carr. Those give them two standouts to build around. Michigan State will also have great depth with most of this year’s rotation back in the fold. Tom Izzo will add in a very impressive recruiting class that ranks second nationally.

2. Duke

While player of the year Cameron Boozer departs, The Blue Devils will again have a significant infusion of freshman talent with guard Deron Rippey Jr. and forward Cameron Williams projected to be immediate impact players. Should veterans Caleb Foster, Cayden Boozer and Dame Sarr decide to forego the draft, this has the makings of one of the best teams in the nation.

3. Michigan

The Wolverines will lose Yaxel Lendeborg and should also see forward Morez Johnson Jr. and center Aday Mara enter the NBA draft. The focus of the team’s production will shift to a backcourt built around Elliot Cadeau and Trey McKenney. Michigan coach Dusty May has signed an elite recruiting class headlined by forwards Quinn Costello and Lincoln Cosby and will again hit the transfer portal aggressively.

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4. Florida

The key question for the Gators is whether Alex Condon will return for another season. He stands to be one of the top players in the SEC and would have Rueben Chinyelu alongside him up front. Boogie Fland and Urban Klavzar are confirmed returner and bring scoring punch and experience in the backcourt. A couple of transfer adds puts Florida back in title contention.

5. Arizona

The departures of most of the key players from a team that dominated the Big 12 will be hard to replace. That’s the negative. The positive is there’s enough role players due back and some key arrivals already slated to join the program. The frontcourt could be formidable with Ivan Kharchenkov and Motiejus Krivas having eligibility. Dwayne Aristode will be expected to lead the backcourt in his sophomore season, and he’ll be joined by five-star freshman Caleb Holt.

6. Illinois

This could be another Final Four team next season if things fall right. The frontcourt looks to be in great shape with David Mirkovic poised to be back with the Ivisic brothers. Andrej Stojakovic will lead the backcourt with Quentin Coleman, a late addition to the recruiting class, a potential immediate contributor after Keaton Wagler’s departure. Expect Brad Underwood bring in more pieces from the transfer portal or overseas to make Illinois a contender again.

7. Alabama

The legal situation of Aden Holloway looms over his status for next season. Should Holloway return, the Crimson Tide have plenty of potential firepower to play their up-tempo style. Amari Allen averaged double figures, while London Jamison stands to have a bigger role in his second seasons in the program. Keitenn Bristow and Jalil Bethea both failed to make an impact after their arrivals from the portal, but development from both would be a major boost.

8. Houston

The Cougars have been a No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the last four tournaments, illustrating the high standards of the program under Kelvin Sampson. There will be retooling through the portal with most of the key components from this past season departing. Veteran forward Joseph Tugler should be the leader of the group and could be joined by Chris Cenac, who is weighing a draft decision. Bigger roles are expected for Mercy Miller and Chase McCarty. Incoming prep center Arafan Diane will be asked to contribute right away.

9. Arkansas

The Razorbacks will be aiming higher after a pair of Sweet 16 appearances. While the departure of Darius Acuff Jr. will leave a major void, John Calipari is bringing in freshman guards Jordan Smith Jr. and JJ Andrews. More will be asked of veterans Billy Richmond III and Malique Ewin, but they are both capable of providing scoring punch.

10. Virginia

The Cavaliers were one of the country’s biggest surprises in Ryan Odom’s first season and stand to bring back several of their key pieces. Thijs De Ridder was first-team all-ACC in his first season with the program, and Sam Lewis and Chance Mallory will have bigger roles. It should be another season at the top of the conference.

11. Gonzaga

It’ll be a new look for the Bulldogs with the team moving into the Pac-12 that will provide greater conference competition with several of the best teams from the Mountain West also arriving. Gonzaga benefits from several mainstays returning with big man Braden Huff expected to be at full strength after missing the final stretch of the season due to a knee injury and rising sophomores Mario Saint-Supery and Davis Fogle looking to make big jumps in production. A strong recruiting class led by Jack Kayil from Germany and Luca Foster will also keep Mark Few’s team in the mix for a top seed in the tournament.

12. Connecticut

Guards Braylon Mullins and Solo Ball could enter the NBA draft. If not, though, UConn will have one of the best backcourts in the country. Silas Demery and Jayden Ross were return after contributing to the team that fell one game short of a national title. There will be a need for a new interior presence with Tarris Reed Jr. graduating, and Alex Karaban’s departure leaves a huge void. But the Huskies will add more wing scoring with freshmen Colben Landrew and Junior County.

13. Iowa State

It will be a year of transition for the Cyclones with mainstays Tamin Lipsey and Jordan Jefferson among the players moving on. Milan Momcilovic, the team’s leading scorer, is expected to explore his NBA draft options, and his return would be a massive boost. T.J. Otzelberger will be aggressive in the portal, but he has holdovers Killyan Toure, Blake Buchanan and Jamarion Batemon to build around.

14. St. John’s

Few teams will be as active in the portal with standouts Zuby Ejiofor and Bryce Hopkins out of eligibility. The backcourt should bring back experience and depth with Dylan Darling, Oziyah Sellers, Ian Jackson and Joson Sanon, though this group will need to be better from 3-point range. The biggest source of optimism comes from coach Rick Pitino and his track record of tournament success.

15. BYU

Incoming freshman Bruce Branch III isn’t as heralded as AJ Dybantsa was, but he’s a massive piece for the Cougars, who will be hoping to avoid the injury bug that slowed their expected NCAA Tournament run. Robert Wright will be an elite scorer with Branch. The big question for coach Kevin Young is bringing in some size to address departures in the frontcourt.

16. Purdue

The Boilermakers move on without the trio of Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer and Trey Kaufman-Renn. No returning player scored more than guard C.J. Cox’s 8.5 points per game. Look for Purdue to lean on a recruiting class that ranks seventh nationally while blending in transfers such as former Princeton forward Caden Pierce. Coach Matt Painter has won at least 24 games in each of the past five years and will contend to do so again despite the reworked roster.

17. Miami (Fla.)

Like his ACC counterpart Ryan Odom, Jai Lucas did one of the best jobs of first-year coaches with the program making a 19-win improvement. The Hurricanes are looking to go further than just making the NCAA Tournament with Shelton Henderson and Dante Allen expected to the top scoring options. Lucas will again hit the portal but he secured an elite recruit by convincing incoming freshman Caleb Gaskins to stay home in South Florida.

18. Nebraska

To capitalize on this year’s success, Nebraska has to retain Pryce Sandfort and Braden Frager while dipping into the portal to find a new starting point guard. The Cornhuskers will bring back some size up front but will need a healthy season from former All-MAC pick Ugnius Jaruševičius. Incoming freshmen Colin Rice and Jacob Lanier could make an immediate impact.

19. Iowa

After a magical Elite Eight run, Iowa looks to maintain that momentum under second-year coach Ben McCollum while losing top scorer Bennett Stirtz. The Hawkeyes will be aggressive in the portal to find a guard to join holdovers Kael Combs, Isaia Howard and Tate Sage, and also to find a center to play alongside projected returnees Alvaro Folgueiras, Cam Manyawu and Cooper Koch.

20. Kansas

One key returner is confirmed with Bill Self deciding to stay on the bench amid health issues. There will be less drama without Darryn Peterson around, and the role of standout freshman should be handled by incoming recruit Taylen Kinney. Bryson Tiller was slated for a bigger role in the frontcourt after the surprising departure of Flory Bidunga. But it appears Tiller and guard Elmarko Jackson also may be leaving.

21. Tennessee

The elusive first Final Four remains the goal but getting back to the Elite Eight for the fourth year in a row will require Rick Barnes to bring in major additions through the portal. One already in the books is Tyler Lundblade from Belmont, who brings needed shooting range. Ralph Scott and Manny Green are two freshmen that need to have a big impact.

22. North Carolina

One big question was answered with the hiring of Michael Malone. It’s unclear how bringing in an NBA title-winning coach without experience as college head coach will shake out. But let’s assume for now that most of their returning pieces stay in place. Luka Bogavac and Jarin Stevenson are good building blocks that return for their senior season, and key recruits Dylan Ming and Maximo Adams could contribute right away. Expect there to be major moves in the portal with Chapel Hill still remaining a desired destination.

23. Louisville

Louisville has gone 51-19 in Pat Kelsey’s two years and should remain an ACC contender despite losing some key pieces, including Mikel Brown Jr. and Ryan Conwell. While there’s work to be done in the portal, the Cardinals bring back guard Adrian Wooley and former G-League guard London Johnson.

24. Wisconsin

With guard John Blackwell entering the portal, look for the Badgers to be active in adding depth and shooting to the wing rotation. What Wisconsin has is an experienced frontline led by Nolan Winter and Austin Rapp, which should lead to a different look on offense. But the pieces are in place for another top-six finish in the Big Ten.

25. VCU

The Rams were poised to have five of their top six scorers return before the announcement that Terrence Hill Jr. was departing. Even with the bad news, Phil Martelli Jr. has a solid foundation to build upon after a 28-win season. Look for guard Nyk Lewis to emerge in his sophomore season with forward Lazar Djokovic providing scoring inside . Sammy Jackson, a top-50 recruit, should be a huge addition to the lineup.

INDIANAPOLIS — You wouldn’t think Michigan would be all smiles at halftime.

Yes, it had a four-point lead over Connecticut in the national championship game, but it was an unattractive four-point lead. It was arguably the worst first-half performance of the season. Not only did the Wolverines fail to make a single 3-pointer in the first half – the only time that’s happened this season – but there were no makes outside of the paint. 

An awful first 20 minutes, but the Wolverines weren’t just staying positive, they were beaming in happiness.

Why?

“It can’t get any worse,” Michigan guard Nimari Burnett told USA TODAY Sports.

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True, but it’s not like the second half was any better. Michigan struggled offensively for all 40 minutes. The 69 points were Michigan’s third lowest of the season. It was the worst 3-point shooting night of the season. 

Actually, it was the worst shooting performance of the season, period.

UConn needed to make Michigan look ugly to win. It did that – and it still lost. 

So, how did the Wolverines do it?

Because of one thing hiding in plain sight; while Michigan was lighting up the scoreboard with its prolific offense all tournament long, it made everyone forget one thing: they are just as good on defense.

“When one side lets us down, the other side picks it up,” Michigan forward Yaxel Lendeborg said.

The Wolverines made sure to remind everybody on Monday, resulting in a national championship as those halftime smiles carried over to after the buzzer sounded and Lucas Oil Stadium rained maize and blue confetti.

It’s not like Michigan’s defensive prowess wasn’t there for all to see. Three players – Lendeborg, Morez Johnson Jr. and Aday Mara – were Big Ten all-defensive players, with Mara the conference defensive player of the year.

That’s why teams’ defensive shooting percentage of 38.4% and average of 6.1 blocks per game were each the second best mark in the country, and it was on full display in the NCAA Tournament. 

The reason why Michigan won its first five tournament games by an average of 21.6 points per game wasn’t just because it was scoring at least 90 points, but because it harassed opposing offenses every night.

No team shot above 45% against the Wolverines, and the collective opponent shooting percentage from those games? A whopping 37.9%. The defense got better in the tournament.

“The statistics, it speaks for itself,” Burnett said. “I feel like we’re the best defensive team in the country.”

Bennett and company did prove it. UConn shot a season-worst 31% from the field. A team that was top 10 in assists with more than 18 per game had just nine, the only time it was held to single digits.

Despite making nine three pointers, UConn missed 24 attempts. Shots were constantly getting contested by the the Wolverines’ quickness to the ball. Even with the looks UConn wanted, not many of them were wide open.

It didn’t get any easier near the basket. Six shots inside the paint got swatted away, making it tough for the Huskies to prevail even with their own defensive toughness.

“It’s hard to have a level of disappointment where literally it just came down to we just didn’t make enough shots in the basket,” UConn coach Dan Hurley said. “To be able to keep that team under 40% from the field – 38% – this team has destroyed everyone they’ve faced in this tournament.”

For all of its defensive success, Michigan still had to find a way to score, and it did so in an uncharacteristic way.

If there was one thing Michigan wasn’t good at, it was free throws. The Wolverines entered the night 109th in the country with a 74.3% mark from the charity stripe. They drew fouls, resulting in 28 free throw attempts.

How many makes? How about 25 for an 89.3% clip.

All of it proving to be just enough to get the biggest win of the season.

“We started off really, really bad offensively, our defense was the reason why we won most of those games, today is the same thing,” Lendeborg said. “We had to dig deep.”

While it wasn’t pretty by any means, how Michigan won showed there is nothing to doubt about this title. Since the statement it made at the Player’s Era tournament, Michigan had been a relentless machine on both sides of the ball, churning blowout after blowout, no matter who was on the other side.

Even when it isn’t able to do that, instead of falling apart like most teams could, the Wolverines opted to hone in on one of its many strengths and ride it toward a win.

“They’re legit. They definitely deserved to win the national championship. They’re clearly the best team in the country this year,” Hurley said.

UConn wanted a slugfest, and it’s exactly what it got. Michigan coach Dusty May actually admitted the Huskies “had a masterful game plan to beat us.” All of it pointed to a third national title in four years to cement Hurley’s dynasty.

Little did UConn and the rest of the country realize Michigan had been throwing it down all season, and it didn’t need another offensive surge to do that. The defense carried Michigan just as much to this point, and in the end, it proved defense wins championships.

“Obviously, it’s a big stage, but we deserve to be here,” Burnett said. “We deserve this moment.”