The S&P 500 ($SPX) wrapped up Tuesday just below its intraday midpoint and posted one of the narrowest ranges we’ve seen in the past two months. That’s a clear sign traders are reluctant to take major bets ahead of Wednesday’s 2:00 PM ET Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision.

And honestly, this caution makes sense. If we look back at how the stock market has reacted following the first two FOMC meetings of 2025, there has been a mix of hesitation and sharp moves.

Below is an updated chart marking each FOMC date since 2024 alongside the S&P 500. After the late January meeting, the S&P 500 zig-zagged to marginal new highs over the next two weeks before the first of two sharp down legs unfolded.

FIGURE 1. FOMC DATES SINCE 2024.

Coincidence or not, the S&P 500 is trading at nearly the same price level now, six weeks later, as it was back then. So, how close are today’s prices compared to the close on March 18, the day before the last Fed meeting?

This close (see chart below):

FIGURE 2. THE S&P 500 IS TRADING VERY CLOSE TO LAST FOMC MEETING LEVELS.

The difference is that the index has been rallying for four weeks, starting from the pivot low on April 7, a month ago today. In March, the S&P 500 was trying to bounce after topping four weeks earlier on February 19. That bounce continued for a few more days before dominant down-trending price action took over.

But over the last few weeks, the dominant trend is definitely higher. So the big question now is: can this mini uptrend resume after this pause?

A Short-Term Setup to Watch

A few days ago, the 14-period relative strength index (RSI) on the two-hour chart grazed the 70-overbought level for the first time since late January (see chart below). Yes, it took a nearly 18% rally in a very short time frame for it to finally happen, but remember, the indicator was coming off its lowest level since the COVID lows. Modest 3–5% pops were enough to trigger overbought readings for much of 2024. Not this time.

As you know, overbought conditions never persist, especially in very short timeframes like this. However, if this rally has anything left in the tank, we’ll see the indicator hit overbought again soon. That may not happen in the next day or two, but if the market reacts negatively to today’s news, but a bid returns soon after, it could keep some of the bullish patterns we’ve been tracking in play. That’s just one scenario, but one we’ll be closely watching.

FIGURE 3. TWO-HOUR CHART OF THE S&P 500.

Bullish Patterns Still Intact

There are two bullish pattern breakouts still in play on the S&P 500 chart:

• Inverse Head-and-Shoulders
• Cup With Handle

And barring a very extreme and negative reaction, the patterns will stay alive today, as well.

FIGURE 4. INVERSE HEAD-AND-SHOULDERS AND CUP WITH HANDLE PATTERNS.

FIGURE 5. INVERSE HEAD-AND-SHOULDERS PATTERN IN THE S&P 500.

FIGURE 6. CUP WITH HANDLE PATTERN IN THE S&P 500.

A Bright Spot: Utilities

The Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU) was the first sector ETF (and one of the first of all the ETFs we track) to notch a new 50-day high, which it hit on Tuesday. On the weekly chart, it’s clear the ETF is now trying to leverage a multi-month bottoming formation.

This is especially notable because the formation has developed above two bullish pattern breakouts from 2024. Ironically, XLU’s first major breakout of 2024 happened around this time last year (late April), which set the stage for an extremely strong run, at least through late November.

The current snapback is important to watch, given how well XLU has recently capitalized on bullish breakouts. Some upside follow-through from here would also put the former highs back in the crosshairs.

FIGURE 7. WEEKLY CHART OF UTILITIES SELECT SECTOR SPDR (XLU).

Invesco Solar (TAN) Still Has Work to Do

Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) has been rallying since the April lows, much like nearly every ETF we track. On the daily chart, it’s been trying to leverage a bullish cup and handle pattern, a formation we’ve also seen emerge in many other areas. It’s coming off an extremely oversold condition, with its 14-week RSI undercutting 30 for just the third time since 2021. So TAN could see some additional upside from here.

But the ETF will need to do much more to materially improve its long-term technical picture. Nearly every rally has stalled near the key weekly moving averages, all of which continue to slope lower. Selling strength in TAN has been a highly effective strategy since it peaked in early 2021.

FIGURE 8. WEEKLY CHART OF INVESCO SOLAR ETF (TAN).

Bitcoin Holding Up

Bitcoin has held its breakout from two weeks ago quite well so far. The next upside target remains near 103k. Again, regardless of whether or not you follow crypto, seeing the bid continue is a bullish sign for risk appetite across different asset classes, especially equities.

Fun fact: Bitcoin topped a few weeks before the SPX, so it can be a useful leading indicator.

FIGURE 9. BITCOIN BREAKS OUT.

Ethereum Playing Catch-Up

While Ethereum’s extreme relative weakness vs. Bitcoin has continued, it too has rallied over the last few weeks. It’s now close to breaking out from a cup with handle formation. At the same time, it’s testing its now flat 50-day moving average.

The combination of a bullish breakout and a move through the 50-day moving average produced a very strong follow-through rally in November, something Ethereum will try to replicate.

FIGURE 10. ETHEREUM BREAKS ABOVE 50-DAY MOVING AVERAGE.

Final Thoughts

As we head into the Fed decision, we’re seeing a lot of cautious optimism in the charts. Key bullish patterns are still holding, sectors like Utilities are showing strength, and crypto is flashing green.

The next few sessions will be important. If we get a knee-jerk reaction to the Fed, but buyers step in quickly it could set the stage for the next leg higher in this rally.

Stay alert.

Frank Cappelleri is the founder and president of CappThesis, an independent technical analysis newsletter firm. Previously, Frank spent 25 years on Wall Street, working for Instinet, the equity arm of Nomura and Smith Barney. Frank’s various roles included being an equity sales trader, technical analyst, research sales specialist and desk strategist. Frank holds the CFA and CMT designations and is a CNBC contributor.

https://cappthesis.com

https://www.youtube.com/@cappthesis

https://twitter.com/FrankCappelleri/

https://www.linkedin.com/in/frank-cappelleri-cfa-cmt-a319483/

With all eyes and ears on this week’s Fed meeting, it’s worth taking a big step back to reflect on conditions related to momentum, breadth, and leadership.  And while the rally of the early April lows has been significant, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 now face considerable resistance at the 200-day moving average.

With that backdrop in mind, here are three charts we’re watching that have not yet signaled an “all clear” for risk assets.

Our Market Trend Model Remains Medium-Term Bearish

Long-time market newsletter author Paul Montgomery used to point out that the most bullish thing the market can do is go up. The way we make this simple assessment of market trend is using our Market Trend Model.

As of last Friday’s close, our Market Trend Model shows a short-term bullish signal, given the strength off the early April low. The medium-term model, however, remains bearish, as the recent bounce is still defined as a bear market rally. If the S&P 500 can push above its own 200-day moving average, that would likely be enough to move the medium-term model to the bullish side for the first time since October 2023.

Over the years, I’ve found the Market Trend Model to be a fantastic way of separating the short-term “flickering ticks” of day-to-day market movements from the more significant shifts in sentiment from bullish to bearish. And by staying on the right side of this model, I’ve been able to capture most of the market upside, and more importantly, avoid disastrous bear phases!

Don’t miss our daily market recap show, CHART THIS with David Keller, CMT. We’ll track how these charts evolve through the course of the week, highlight key stocks on the move, and boil down the most important market themes from a technical perspective. Join us live every trading day at 5pm ET, or catch the replay on our YouTube channel!

Will Key Stocks Breakout Above the 200-Day?

While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are testing their own 200-day moving averages, many S&P 500 members are in a very similar position. At the April 2025 market low, less than 10% of the S&P 500 stocks were above their 50-day moving average. That reading has reached almost 60% this week as literally half of the S&P 500 members have regained this short-term moving average.

While the bottom panel shows the percent of stocks above the 50-day moving average, the next panel up displays the percent of S&P 500 members above their 200-day moving average. While this has also increased over the last month, it still remains below 50%.

The countertrend rally in March 2025 saw this indicator go up to 50% and then reverse lower, providing a warning sign of further lows to come. Will we see a similar stall in this indicator in May 2025? If so, that could indicate a retest of the April low. On the other hand, if both of these gauges push above 50%, then investors should brace for much further upside for the S&P 500.

Offense Needs to Dominate Defense

Leadership themes could become incredibly important, as many leading growth stocks remain in a position of technical weakness. And unless the top growth stocks go into full rally mode, it’s hard to imagine meaningful upside for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. One way to consider this relationship is to chart the ratio between Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples.

The top panel shows the cap-weighted sector ETFs, and the bottom panel shows the same ratio using equal-weighted sector ETFs. Both of these ratios made a major peak in Q1 2025, and both of them trended lower into a mid-April low. Over the last three weeks, we’ve seen a dramatic upside reversal in these offense-defense rations, indicating a rotation from defensive to offensive positioning.

Quite simply, I don’t see the major averages pushing higher unless these ratios continue to gain ground to the upside. We have observed strength in some Consumer Staples names, from Kroger (KR) to Coca Cola (KO), but it would take charts like Amazon (AMZN) making a significant move higher to give the S&P 500 any real chance of pushing above its own 200-day moving average. This ratio moving higher would confirm that “things you want” are outperforming “things you need”, and that has bullish implications for risk assets.

Investors are facing more uncertainty than ever as we brace for the latest Fed announcement, the newest tariff headline, and mixed results in the form of economic indicators. By watching charts like these, and keeping a watchful eye on the updated Market Summary page, StockCharts users can approach these markets with confidence.

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

In this video, Joe shares how to trade MACD signals using multiple timeframes, and how to spot stock market pullback setups that can help to pinpoint a great entry off a low. He then reviews sector performance to identify market leadership, covers key chart patterns, and discusses a looming bearish signal on QQQ and IWM. The video wraps with technical analysis on popular viewer-submitted stock symbols, including REAL, PSTG, and more.

The video premiered on May 7, 2025. Click this link to watch on Joe’s dedicated page.

Archived videos from Joe are available at this link. Send symbol requests to stocktalk@stockcharts.com; you can also submit a request in the comments section below the video on YouTube. Symbol Requests can be sent in throughout the week prior to the next show.