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Christopher Bell was not about to let Joey Logano win two consecutive NASCAR All-Star Races. Not when Bell’s Toyota had fresher tires than Logano’s Ford. And especially not with a $1 million prize on the line.

So, despite Logano repeatedly holding him off during the final 30 laps at North Wilkesboro Speedway, Bell made one final charge Sunday night and completed the pass with nine laps remaining before holding on to win the 2025 NASCAR All-Star Race.

Bell, racing in his fifth All-Star Race, led 28 laps to win the event for the first time. The 30-year-old became the 27th different driver to win the All-Star Race and just the third from Joe Gibbs Racing, joining Denny Hamlin and former JGR driver Kyle Busch. It was also just third All-Star win for a Toyota driver and the first since 2017 at Charlotte Motor Speedway as Chevrolet and Ford drivers had dominated the recent races.

“That right there was absolutely incredible,” Bell said after he completed a celebratory burnout. “North Wilkesboro is the best short track on the schedule. … I had so much fun last year. I sucked in the race, but racing here last year was so much fun. As this place continues to age, it’s just going to get better and better. Man, that was an amazing race.”

Logano, who dominated the 2024 All-Star Race, led a race-high 139 laps in his No. 22 Team Penske Ford but elected to stay out on the final pit stop while most of the field took at least two tires. The fresher tires paid off for Bell as he hunted down the three-time NASCAR Cup Series champion in the closing laps.

Bell has been one of the top drivers in NASCAR since 2022, finishing in the top six in each of the last three years. He won three races in a row earlier this year – at Atlanta, Circuit of the Americas and Phoenix – and finished second at the series most recent race at Kansas Speedway last weekend.

USA TODAY Sports provided live coverage of Sunday’s All-Star Race. Scroll below the gallery for a full recap.

2025 NASCAR All-Star Race results

(Car number in parentheses)

  1. (20) Christopher Bell, Toyota
  2. (22) Joey Logano, Ford
  3. (1) Ross Chastain, Chevrolet
  4. (48) Alex Bowman, Chevrolet
  5. (9) Chase Elliott, Chevrolet
  6. (24) William Byron, Chevrolet
  7. (45) Tyler Reddick, Toyota
  8. (8) Kyle Busch, Chevrolet
  9. (19) Chase Briscoe, Toyota
  10. (17) Chris Buescher, Ford
  11. (77) Carson Hocevar, Chevrolet
  12. (11) Denny Hamlin, Toyota
  13. (4) Noah Gragson, Ford
  14. (3) Austin Dillon, Chevrolet
  15. (47) Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Chevrolet
  16. (12) Ryan Blaney, Ford
  17. (21) Josh Berry, Ford
  18. (2) Austin Cindric, Ford
  19. (42) John Hunter Nemechek, Toyota
  20. (51) Harrison Burton, Ford
  21. (5) Kyle Larson, Chevrolet
  22. (6) Brad Keselowski, Ford
  23. (99) Daniel Suarez, Chevrolet

Christopher Bell wins 2025 NASCAR All-Star Race

Christopher Bell passed defending winner Joey Logano with nine laps to go to win the 2025 NASCAR All-Star Race at North Wilkesboro Speedway. Bell collects a $1 million prize as the winner.

Bell, driving the No. 20 Toyota for Joe Gibbs Racing, started second and led 28 laps across four different stints. Logano led a race-high 139 laps after starting fourth. Ross Chastain finished third, Alex Bowman fourth and Chase Elliott fifth.

2025 NASCAR All-Star Race: Lap 216 promoter’s caution

An optional promoter’s caution flag came out on Lap 216 of 250 with Joey Logano leading and Christopher Bell giving chase. The caution came out just as Kyle Larson began having issues with his No. 5 Chevrolet after trying to chase down the Logano and Bell.

Former NASCAR driver and current Fox Sports analyst Michael Waltrip waved the yellow from the flagstand and then accidentally dropped it on the track. During the caution period, most of the drivers hit pit road for tires, but Logano, Penske teamate Ryan Blaney and Ross Chastain were among those who stayed out with less than 30 laps to go before the scheduled end of the race.

2025 NASCAR All-Star Race: Lap 176 caution

Brad Keselowski got loose in the corner between Turns 3 and 4 and slammed hard into the outside wall in his No. 6 Ford to bring out the yellow flag. Keselowski, who started on the pole and had led 62 laps, was running ninth.

All drivers came down pit road during the caution to take fresh tires. The entire field got four new tires except Kyle Larson, who took two and came off pit road first. Joey Logano, who has led a race-high 83 laps, will restart alongside Larson on the front row. The race is scheduled for 250 laps.

2025 NASCAR All-Star Race: Lap Lap 155

Joey Logano is back up front after holding off Christopher Bell on a restart on Lap 121. Logano has now led more than 60 laps after dominating last year’s All-Star Race. Bell runs second, Ryan Blaney third, Chase Elliott fourth and Alex Bowman fifth.

2025 NASCAR All-Star Race: Lap 114 caution

Ross Chastain brought out the caution flag after spinning on Lap 114. Chastain’s No. 1 Chevrolet got bumped by Austin Cindric’s No. 2 Ford as both battled with Alex Bowman’s No. 48 Chevrolet for track position. Moments before, Cindric had contact with Josh Berry in the No. 21 Ford.

2025 NASCAR All-Star Race: Lap 101 competition caution

Joey Logano, who won last year’s All-Star Race, took the lead on Lap 81 after taking four tires on his pit stop and held it through the competition caution. Logano passed Daytona 500 winner William Byron, who took the lead two laps after the restart on Lap 64, following a three-wide battle for the lead with Brad Keselowski and Kyle Busch.

Christopher Bell moved up to second, Chase Elliott was third, Ryan Blaney fourth and Byron dropped to fifth. Busch was sixth, Austin Cindric seventh, Keselowski eighth, Ross Chastain ninth and Josh Berry 10th.

All drivers came down pit road under caution for more fuel and fresh tires. The race is scheduled for 250 laps. Bell won the race off pit road and will restart on the front row alongside Logano.

2025 NASCAR All-Star Race: Lap 57 caution

Daniel Suarez hit the outside wall on Lap 57 bringing out the first caution of the race. Suarez appeared to have a flat right front tire. All drivers came down pit road under yellow to take fuel and tires. Brad Keselowski, who has lead nearly every lap of the race, took just tires on his pit stop to maintain his lead. William Byron also took two tires and will restart second.

2025 NASCAR All-Star Race: Lap 50

Brad Keselowski started on the pole Sunday night at North Wilkesboro Speedway and has led 49 of 50 laps. Joey Logano, the 2024 NASCAR All-Star Race winner, sits in second and has led the only other lap. William Byron races third, Chase Elliott fourth and Christopher Bell fifth.

The 2025 NASCAR All-Star Race is 250 laps around the 0.625-mile oval.

Carson Hocevar wins NASCAR All-Star Open

Carson Hocevar took charge on the final restart on Lap 84 of 100 to surge to the lead in his No. 77 Chevrolet and win the 2025 NASCAR All-Star Open. John Hunter Nemecheck, in the No. 42 Toyota, finished second. With the results, Hocevar and Nemechek advanced to their first NASCAR All-Star Race. Noah Gragson won the fan vote for the third consecutive season and will also transfer to the All-Star Race.

The three drivers will start the 2025 NASCAR All-Star Race, which is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET, in the rear of the field behind the 20 automatic qualifers.

NASCAR All-Star Open hits halfway point

The yellow flag waved for a compeition caution on Lap 50 in the 2025 NASCAR All-Star Open. Shane Van Gisbergen led all 50 laps. The race is scheduled to go 100 laps, but there will be one attempt at overtime, if necessary, at the end of the race.

The top two finishers plus the All-Star fan vote winner will transfer to the NASCAR All-Star Race later tonight and will start in the rear of the field.

What time does the NASCAR All-Star Race start?

The 2025 NASCAR All-Star Race starts at 8 p.m. ET at North Wilkesboro Speedway in North Wilkesboro, North Carolina. It will be preceded by the NASCAR All-Star Open, which begins at 5 p.m. ET.

What TV channel is the NASCAR All-Star Race on?

FS1 is broadcasting the 2025 NASCAR All-Star Race and the All-Star Open.

Will there be a live stream of the NASCAR All-Star Race?

The 2025 NASCAR All-Star Race can be live streamed on Max and the FoxSports app. Viewers can also stream the race on Fubo, which is offering a free trial to new subscribers.

Watch the NASCAR All-Star Race on Fubo

How many laps is the NASCAR All-Star Race and All-Star Open?

  • The 2025 NASCAR All-Star Race is 250 laps around the 0.625-mile oval for a total of 156.25 miles. All laps count, and there will be a competition break at or around the 100-lap mark.
  • The All-Star Open is 100 laps. All laps count, and there will be a competition break at or around Lap 50. There will be one attempt at NASCAR Overtime if necessary. The top two finishers plus the All-Star Fan Vote winner will transfer to the All-Star Race and start in the rear of the field.

Who won the most recent NASCAR All-Star Race?

Joey Logano dominated the 2024 NASCAR All-Star Race, leading 199 of 200 laps before holding off Denny Hamlin by 0.636 seconds.

What is the lineup for the NASCAR All-Star Race?

The starting lineup for the 2025 NASCAR All-Star race was determined by the results of Saturday’s heat races. Heat 1 results determined the inside row to start Sunday’s race, while Heat 2 results determined the outside row (car number in parentheses):

  1. (6) Brad Keselowski, Ford … Fastest in qualifying
  2. (20) Christopher Bell, Toyota … Heat Race No. 2 winner
  3. (1) Ross Chastain, Chevrolet … Heat Race No. 1 2nd place
  4. (22) Joey Logano, Ford … Heat Race No. 2 2nd place
  5. (24) William Byron, Chevrolet … Heat Race No. 1 3rd place
  6. (9) Chase Elliott, Chevrolet … Heat Race No. 2 3rd place
  7. (12) Ryan Blaney, Ford … Heat Race No. 1 4th place
  8. (8) Kyle Busch, Chevrolet … Heat Race No. 2 4th place
  9. (48) Alex Bowman, Chevrolet … Heat Race No. 1 5th place
  10. (17) Chris Buescher, Ford … Heat Race No. 2 5th place
  11. (21) Josh Berry, Ford … Heat Race No. 1 6th place
  12. (99) Daniel Suárez, Chevrolet … Heat Race No. 2 6th place
  13. (45) Tyler Reddick, Toyota … Heat Race No. 1 7th place
  14. (19) Chase Briscoe, Toyota … Heat Race No. 2 7th place
  15. (3) Austin Dillon, Chevrolet … Heat Race No. 1 8th place
  16. (2) Austin Cindric, Ford … Heat Race No. 2 8th place
  17. (47) Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Chevrolet … Heat Race No. 1 9th place
  18. (51) Harrison Burton, Ford … Heat Race No. 2 9th place
  19. (5) Kyle Larson, Chevrolet … Heat Race No. 1 10th place
  20. (11) Denny Hamlin, Toyota … Heat Race No. 2 10th place
  21. All-Star Open winner
  22. All-Star Open 2nd place
  23. Fan vote winner

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The Dallas Stars clinched a Western Conference final berth Saturday night by defeating the Winnipeg Jets in overtime.

They will face the Edmonton Oilers for the second year in a row in the third round, starting Wednesday night at home.

The Carolina Hurricanes won’t know their opponent in the Eastern Conference final until Sunday night, when the Toronto Maple Leafs host the defending champion Florida Panthers in Game 7.

But the league released two possible versions of the Eastern schedule, plus the Western one, on Saturday night.

Here are the matchups, schedule and television information for the conference finals of the NHL’s Stanley Cup playoffs (all times p.m. ET, series are best of seven, x-if necessary):

How to stream NHL playoffs

Fubo and ESPN+ carry ESPN and ABC games. Sling and Max carry TNT games.

Eastern Conference final schedule (if Toronto advances)

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Carolina Hurricanes

  • Game 1: Tuesday, May 20, Carolina at Toronto, 8, TNT, truTV
  • Game 2: Thursday, May 22, Carolina at Toronto, 8, TNT, truTV
  • Game 3: Saturday, May 24, Toronto at Carolina, 8, TNT, truTV
  • Game 4: Monday, May 26, Toronto at Carolina, 8, TNT, truTV
  • x-Game 5: Wednesday, May 28, Carolina at Toronto, 8, TNT, truTV
  • x-Game 6: Friday, May 30, Toronto at Carolina, 8, TNT, truTV
  • x-Game 7: Sunday, June 1, Carolina at Toronto, 8, TNT, truTV

Eastern Conference final schedule (if Florida advances)

Carolina Hurricanes vs. Florida Panthers

  • Game 1: Tuesday, May 20, Florida at Carolina, 8, TNT, truTV
  • Game 2: Thursday, May 22, Florida at Carolina, 8, TNT, truTV
  • Game 3: Saturday, May 24, Carolina at Florida, 8, TNT, truTV
  • Game 4: Monday, May 26, Carolina at Florida, 8, TNT, truTV
  • x-Game 5: Wednesday, May 28, Florida at Carolina, 8, TNT, truTV
  • x-Game 6: Friday, May 30, Carolina at Florida, 8, TNT, truTV
  • x-Game 7: Sunday, June 1, Florida at Carolina, 8, TNT, truTV

Western Conference final schedule

Dallas Stars vs. Edmonton Oilers

  • Game 1: Wednesday, May 21, Edmonton at Dallas, 8, ESPN
  • Game 2: Friday, May 23, Edmonton at Dallas, 8, ESPN
  • Game 3: Sunday, May 25, Dallas at Edmonton, 3, ABC
  • Game 4: Tuesday, May 27, Dallas at Edmonton, 8, ESPN
  • x-Game 5: Thursday, May 29, Edmonton at Dallas, 8, ESPN
  • x-Game 6: Saturday, May 31, Dallas at Edmonton, 8, ABC
  • x-Game 7: Monday, June 2, Edmonton at Dallas, 8, ESPN
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The No. 1 overall Winnipeg Jets announced before Game 6 against the Dallas Stars that No. 1 center Mark Scheifele’s father, Brad, had died unexpectedly the night before.

Scheifele told the team he was going to play in Saturday’s game to honor his father. Not only did he play, he opened the scoring in the second period and was a force with nine hits.

The Stars were able to rally when Sam Steel scored in the second period and, late in the third period, Scheifele had to haul down Steel to prevent a breakaway. Thomas Harley scored in overtime before the penalty expired for a series-clinching 2-1 victory.

‘It’s tough to put into words what Mark went through today,’ Jets captain Adam Lowry said. ‘He gets a huge goal for us, plays a heck of a game and it ends the way it does.’

Scheifele received a lot of respect in the handshake line, including a long hug from Stars captain Jamie Benn, who was fined after Game 5 for sucker punching Scheifele.

USA TODAY provided updates on Game 6 between the Dallas Stars and Winnipeg Jets. Game highlights:

What’s next for the Stars?

They will head to the conference final for the third year in a row. They lost the last two, including last year against the Edmonton Oilers, their next opponent. They went 2-1 against the Oilers in the regular season.

What’s next for the Jets?

They finished with the league’s best record, so there’s a good core there. Nikolaj Ehlers is the key unrestricted free agent. Mason Appleton and trade deadline acquisition Brandon Tanev also are UFAs. Kyle Connor can sign an extension this summer and fellow first-liner Gabriel Vilardi is a restricted free agent.

Stars vs. Jets highlights

Game 6 recap

Stars-Jets final score: Dallas wins in overtime

Thomas Harley connects with a one-timer from the slot at 1:33 with 13 seconds left in the Mark Scheifele penalty. Dallas is heading to its third consecutive Western Conference final with a 2-1 overtime victory. It will be a rematch of the 2024 conference final that Edmonton won.

Overtime begins

Things to remember: The Stars have nearly two minutes of a power play. Jets defenseman Josh Morrissey is injured.

End of third period: Stars 1, Jets 1

Connor Hellebuyck and Jake Oettinger were U.S. goalies at the 4 Nations Face-Off. They showed why by matching big saves in the third period. Hellebuyck stopped Mikko Rantanen in tight and Oettinger robbed Mason Appleton with a diving save. Forget the narrative about home Hellebuyck vs. road Hellebuyck. He has looked good in Dallas.

Stars go on power play

Mark Scheifele trips Sam Steel with 14.8 seconds left in regulation. First penalty of the game. Should it have been a penalty shot?

Jets kill off the remaining seconds of the period. Power play will extend into overtime.

Six minutes left in regulation

Still 1-1 after Dallas’ Evgenii Dadonov hits the post.

Huge save by Jake Oettinger

Oettinger dives across the crease to get a piece of Mason Appleton’s shot with the net wide open.

Brandon Tanev returns

He’s back on the ice after a collision.

Mark Scheifele chance

He fights off two defenders for a scoring chance, but his shot goes wide.

Brandon Tanev injury?

The Jets forward is grimacing on the bench after a collision with Miro Heiskanen.

Connor Hellebuyck save

He stretches out and gets his leg on a shot by Mikko Rantanen, who’s left alone in front.

Third period underway

No sign of injured Jets defenseman Josh Morrissey.

End of second period: Stars 1, Jets 1

Heartbroken Mark Scheifele is having a dominant performance. Not only did he score, he has nine hits through two periods. He opened the scoring but Sam Steel tied it up with his first goal of the playoffs. Shots were 12-8 Winnipeg in that period. Jets defenseman Josh Morrissey left the game with what appears to be a leg injury.

Josh Morrissey goes to the dressing room

The Jets defenseman is limping after being involved in a collision with Mikko Rantanen.

Jets-Stars score: Dallas ties it up

Sam Steel, who had a good chance in the first period, connects this time. He walks into a rebound and beats Connor Hellebuyck under the crossbar at 11:12. Stars 1, Jets 1

Jets-Stars score: Mark Scheifele connects

The Jets get their first sustained pressure and connect. Nikolaj Ehlers is stopped on a breakaway and with the Stars on a delayed penalty, Scheifele picks up a rebound and beats Jake Oettinger at 5:28. Jets 1, Stars 0

Second period underway

Still scoreless.

End of first period: Stars 0, Jets 0

Considering the Jets have a minus-5 goal differential in the first period in the playoffs, they have to be happy to escape with the scoreless tie. The Stars did control a lot of the play, but not a lot of their shots got through. Shot attempts are 26-12 Dallas. Shots on net are 6-3. Connor Hellebuyck makes a chest save on Lian Bichsel and a pad save on Matt Duchene. Jake Oettinger stopped the Jets’ best chance, by Cole Perfetti.

Stars continue pressuring

Dallas was in the Winnipeg zone for nearly two minutes. Three shots on net. Shot attempts widely in Stars favor.

Stars pressuring

Dallas’ Tyler Seguin shoots wide of an open net.

Six minutes in

No shots yet for Winnipeg. Dallas has two.

Game underway

Connor Hellebuyck makes a save on Mikko Rantanen early.

What time is Dallas Stars vs. Winnipeg Jets Game 6?

Game 6 of the Stars-Jets series is at 8 p.m. ET in Dallas.

How to watch Stars vs. Jets playoff game: TV, stream

  • Time: 8 p.m. ET
  • Location: American Airlines Center in Dallas
  • TV: ABC
  • Stream: Fubo, ESPN+

Mark Scheifele to start in Game 6

The NHL roster report shows that Mark Scheifele will be out for the opening faceoff and center his usual line with Kyle Connor and Gabriel Vilardi. The Stars will start with the Roope Hintz-Mikael Granlund-Mikko Rantanen line.

Mark Scheifele will play in Game 6

Jets coach Scott Arniel said Mark Scheifele will play in Game 6 after the death of his father.

‘He said that would be the wishes of his dad, that he would want him to play,’ Arniel said. ‘I know he’s been rooting us on.’

Jets players ‘gutted’ over death of Mark Scheifele’s father

Jets captain Adam Lowry reflected on Brad Scheifele, Mark’s father, who died unexpectedly. He said he had seen him numerous times during the team’s fathers’ trips.

‘The energy that he had was unmatched,’ Lowry said. ‘His joy and excitement for life, he really passed that down on to Mark. I think his positivity, his outlook on life, just a genuinely happy person. A terrible loss, obviously.’

He added: ‘It’s tough to put into words how gutted we all feel for Mark and his family.’

Jets announce death of Mark Scheifele’s father

Jets general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff said Saturday afternoon that star forward Mark Scheifele’s father, Brad, died overnight.

‘As an organization, we’re doing everything we can to support him and give his family our most sincere condolences,’ he said.

He said coach Scott Arniel was heading to the team hotel to talk to Scheifele and would provide an update later.

Dallas Stars fans donate to Mark Scheifele-supported charities

Connor Hellebuyck statistics on the road

Jets goalie Connor Hellebuyck is 0-5 on the road this postseason with a 5.84 goals-against average and a .793 save percentage. In his last game in Dallas, he gave up three goals on 24 shots. He had a shutout while at home in his last game.

Jets winless on road this postseason

The Jets lost all three road games in the first round against the St. Louis Blues with goalie Connor Hellebuyck being pulled in each game. They played better in Dallas in the second round but lost both of those games to drop to 0-5 on the road this postseason. Their road losing streak is nine games stretching back to 2023.

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Antonio Brown was ‘temporarily detained’ by police Saturday after an altercation in which gunshots were fired outside at a celebrity boxing event in Miami, the former NFL star announced on social media.

Miami Police Department spokesperson Kiara Delva told the USA TODAY Sports Network that Miami Police received an alert from ShotSpotter — a gunshot detection system — at approximately 3 a.m. ET Saturday. They arrived at the location the system produced and discovered an event, hosted by popular streamer Adin Ross, was being held there.

The police then initiated an investigation, which ‘included canvassing the area and interviewing several individuals.’ Delva could not confirm the names of the individuals at the scene at the time of the incident. No injured persons were located, nor were any arrests made as a result of the investigation, which is ongoing.

Video posted to social media showed Brown involved in a fight with several people. The 36-year-old could be seen jogging as he exited a garage. Gunshots can be heard off-camera near the end of the footage.

Brown claimed he was ‘jumped by multiple individuals’ who attempted to steal jewelry from him.

‘Police temporarily detained me until they received my side of the story and then released me,’ Brown wrote on social media. ‘I WENT HOME THAT NIGHT AND WAS NOT ARRESTED.’

Brown did not mention the gunshots in his statement. He did say he would try to press charges ‘on the individuals that jumped [him].’

Brown also told Ross he couldn’t remember what had happened during the incident in a livestream shortly after it occurred.

‘Yeah I got CTE, I blacked out,’ Brown said. ‘I blacked out, Adin. I don’t know what happened.’

Brown last played in the NFL in 2021 with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He played a total of 12 NFL seasons with the Pittsburgh Steelers, New England Patriots and Buccaneers.

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Scottie Scheffler finished the third round at the top of the leaderboard and with a chance to win his first PGA Championship.

Scheffler finished 11-under par and enters the final day of the event with a 3-shot lead over Alex Noren (-8). J.T. Poston (-7) and Davis Riley (-7) are tied for third.

Here are the highlights of Saturday’s third round: 

PGA Championship 2025 leaderboard

  • 1. Scottie Scheffler: -11, F
  • 2. Alex Noren: -8, F
  • T3. J.T. Poston: -7, F
  • T3. Davis Riley: -7, F
  • T5. Si Woo Kim: -6, F
  • T5. Jon Rahm: -6, F
  • T5. Jhonattan Vegas: -6, F
  • T8: Keegan Bradley: -5, F
  • T8. Bryson DeChambeau: -5, F
  • T8: Tony Finau: -5, F
  • T8: Matt Fitzpatrick: -5, F
  • T8. Matthieu Pavon: -5, F

You can get the latest leaderboard updates and tee times here.

Alex Noren to enter Sunday as a contender

Alex Noren briefly held the top spot on the leaderboard after finishing with a score of 66. He enters Sunday in second place behind Scheffler.

Noren is making just his second start of 2025 after returning from an injury. He birdied on four of his last five holes.

Scottie Scheffler back on top

Scottie Scheffler jumped back to the top of the leaderboard after hitting for eagle on hole 14.

Jon Rahm reflects on third round

Jon Rahm finished the third round with a score of 67, his lowest score in a major since the Open Championship in 2023.

‘Every day is getting harder,’ Rahm said during an interview with CBS’ Amanda Balionis. ‘Things are going to go sideways, but you will also get good breaks. … I got two incredible bounces on (holes) 9 and 11 off the tee that should’ve been in the rough but ended up in the fairway.’

DeChambeau is the sole leader

Bryson DeChambeau sinks a four-foot birdie at Hole 15, taking the sole lead at eight-under.

The lead continues to change

Jon Rahm’s brief time at the top was quickly overshadowed as the leaderboard continued to shift. Bryson DeChambeau made a seven-foot birdie putt on the par-4 14th hole, bringing his score to seven under par. He is now tied for the lead with Jhonattan Vegas, Scottie Scheffler, and Davis Riley.

Jon Rahm joins the lead

Jon Rahm continues his excellent round and joins the leaders at 7-under. He is now tied with Scottie Scheffler and Jhonattan Vegas.

Vegas looks hot and back on top

Vegas briefly went eight under after a birdie at the par-4 eighth as the sole leader; however, this was short-lived after he missed a two-footer. He is now seven under and shares the lead with Scottie Scheffler.

Rahm nails a birdie putt at No. 14

Jon Rahm recovered from his frightening incident to birdie at Hole 14, moving to 6-under and tying for fourth place.

Kim shares the lead with Scheffler

Scottie Scheffler is tied for the lead after making a birdie at the seventh hole, recording his third birdie in four holes. He is now 7-under, alongside Si-Woo Kim at the top of the leaderboard.

Jon Rahm smokes fan on Hole 11

Through 10 holes, Rahm had played pretty well this Saturday, sitting at -3 on the day and 5-under for the tournament. However, that stellar play didn’t stop him from experiencing a rather scary moment on Hole 11. Rahm’s approach shot went far left, and appeared destined for the rough. However, Rahm’s ball struck a fan, with the ball ricocheting off the fan’s head, across the green, and into the right side rough.

Thankfully, the fan was alright. Rahm gifted them an autographed glove as an apology. Rahm wound up with a bogey on the hole.

Si Woo Kim takes the lead

Si Woo Kim now leads the leaderboard after making a birdie on the fourth hole. He holds a one-shot lead at 7-under par.

Tony Finau’s surge

Tony Finau is climbing the leaderboard and is now just two shots off the lead.

The lead shifts

Jhonattan Vegas has recorded bogeys on his first two holes of the day and now stands at 6-under on the leaderboard. He is currently tied for first place with Matthieu Pavon, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Si Woo Kim.

Jon Rahm keeps moving

Jon Rahm continues to climb the leaderboard after a bogey on the sixth hole, followed by a birdie on the seventh. He is now at 4-under, just three shots behind the leader.

Vegas is now 7-under

Jhonattan Vegas made a bogey 5 on his first hole, reducing his lead to one at 7-under par.

The leaders start Round 3

The final group, featuring leader Jhonattan Vegas, Matthieu Pavon, and Matt Fitzpatrick, is now in action. Vegas leads by two shots.

Scheffler, McIlroy, and Schauffele start Round 3

World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, World No. 2 Rory McIlroy, and World No. 3 Xander Schauffele have teed off for the third round.

Ryo Hisatsune’s hole-out

Ryo Hisatsune’s chip from the bunker at hole No. 4 marks the 81st hole-out of the tournament.

Matt Wallace eagle on No. 14

Matt Wallace is now two under par after hitting an eagle from the bunker at hole No. 14.

Bryson DeChambeau move into the top ten

Bryson DeChambeau nailed a 30-foot birdied putt his first hole of the day, moving into the top ten with an overall score of -4. He is now five shots off the lead.

Collin Morikawa birdie on first hole

Collin Morikawa, the 2020 PGA Champion, birdied his first hole at No. 10 and is now one-under par, tied for 36th place on the leaderboard.

Jon Rahm birdied on first hole

Jon Rahm started his third round on a positive note, birdieing the first hole on Saturday at Quail Hollow. He is now 3-under and climbing up the leaderboard, currently tied for tenth place.

Ryder Cup captain gets a roar

United States Ryder Cup captain Keegan Bradley received loud applause as he teed off for the third round. Bradley is 2-under and tied for 27th heading into this round of the PGA Championship.

Round 3 is underway

Round 3 has begun with Joaquin Niemann (-1), Tyrrell Hatton (-1), and Wyndham Clark (-1) teeing off.

Where to watch the PGA Championship: TV channel, streaming Saturday

The 2025 PGA Championship will be broadcast by ESPN and CBS for the final two rounds on Saturday and Sunday. ESPN+ and Fubo will have streaming coverage of all four rounds at the PGA Championship, while viewers can stream the action on Paramount+ during the weekend coverage.

  • Saturday-Sunday: 8-10 a.m. (ESPN+), 10 a.m.-1 p.m. (ESPN), 1-7 p.m. (CBS, Paramount +) and Fubo (Fubo offers a free trial subscription)

Watch the 2025 PGA Championship with Fubo

Updated weather forecast for Quail Hollow

According to the Weather Channel, Saturdays will begin with partly cloudy skies in the morning, transitioning to occasional showers in the afternoon. The high temperature is expected to reach 87 degrees, with winds ranging from 10 to 20 mph. The chance of showers throughout the day is 40%.

PGA Championship weather: Round 3 tee-times announced

The PGA has announced that Round 3 tee times will start from 11:43 a.m. to 1:55 p.m. Here are the updated tee times:

All times Eastern.

  • 11:43 a.m. (Hole 1): Joaquin Niemann (-1), Tyrrell Hatton (-1), Wyndham Clark (-1)
  • 11:48 a.m. (Hole 10): Rafael Campos (-1), Matt Wallace (-1), Tom McKibbin (-1)
  • 11:54 a.m. (Hole 1): Keegan Bradley (-2), Marco Penge (-2), Lucas Glover (-1)
  • 11:59 a.m. (Hole 10): Beau Hossler (-1), Luke Donald (-1), Corey Conners (-1)
  • 12:05 p.m. (Hole 1): Viktor Hovland (-2), Tommy Fleetwood (-2), Jon Rahm (-2)
  • 12:10 p.m. (Hole 10): Nicolai Hojgaard (-1), Harry Hall (-1), Austin Eckroat (E)
  • 12:16 p.m. (Hole 1): Cam Davis (-2), Adam Scott (-2), Joe Highsmith (-2)
  • 12:21 p.m. (Hole 10): Byeong Hun An (E), Collin Morikawa (E), Cameron Young (E)
  • 12:27 p.m. (Hole 1): Tony Finau (-3), Ben Griffin (-3), Eric Cole (-2)
  • 12:32 p.m. (Hole 10): Daniel Berger (E), Brian Campbell (E), Taylor Moore (E)
  • 12:38 p.m. (Hole 1): Davis Riley (-3), Alex Noren (-3), Ryo Hisatsune (-3)
  • 12:43 p.m. (Hole 10): Nico Echavarria (E), Harris English (E), Stephan Jaeger (E)
  • 12:49 p.m. (Hole 1): Taylor Pendrith (-3), Bryson DeChambeau (-3), Richard Bland (-3)
  • 12:54 p.m. (Hole 10): Rasmus Hojgaard (E), Thorbjorn Olesen (E), Maverick McNealy (E)
  • 1:00 p.m. (Hole 1): Garrick Higgo (-4), J.J. Spaun (-3), Aaron Rai (-3)
  • 1:05 p.m. (Hole 10): Justin Lower (E), Tom Kim (+1), Sergio Garcia (+1)
  • 1:11 p.m. (Hole 1): Sam Stevens (-4), Denny McCarthy (-4), Ryan Gerard (-4)
  • 1:16 p.m. (Hole 10): Brian Harman (+1), Elvis Smylie (+1), Kevin Yu (+1)
  • 1:22 p.m. (Hole 1): Alex Smalley (-4), J.T. Poston (-4), Robert MacIntyre (-4)
  • 1:27 p.m. (Hole 10): David Puig (+1), Bud Cauley (+1), Michael Kim (+1)
  • 1:33 p.m. (Hole 1): Michael Thorbjornsen (-4), Christiaan Bezuidenhout (-4), Ryan Fox (-4)
  • 1:38 p.m. (Hole 10): Chris Kirk (+1), Rory McIlroy (+1), Xander Schauffele (+1)
  • 1:44 p.m. (Hole 1): Si Woo Kim (-6), Max Homa (-5), Scottie Scheffler (-5)
  • 1:44 p.m. (Hole 10): Max Greyserman (+1), Sam Burns (+1)
  • 1:44 p.m. (Hole 1): Jhonattan Vegas (-8), Matthieu Pavon (-6), Matt Fitzpatrick (-6)

PGA Championship weather: Play suspended immediately Saturday

Play was suspended just as the first players were getting set to tee for the third round Saturday morning, with dangerous weather present at Quail Hollow.

PGA Championship tee times today

Notable tee times. For a full list of tee times, you can find Saturday’s starts here.

*All times listed are Eastern

Saturday tee times, pairings

The PGA Championship has completed two rounds and the cut. Here are the tee times and pairings for Saturday’s third round:

All times Eastern.

  • 8:15 a.m.: Max Greyserman, Sam Burns
  • 8:25 a.m.: Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele
  • 8:35 a.m.: Michael Kim, Chris Kirk
  • 8:45 a.m.: David Puig, Bud Cauley
  • 8:55 a.m.: Elvis Smylie, Kevin Yu
  • 9:05 a.m.: Sergio Garcia, Brian Harman
  • 9:15 a.m.: Justin Lower, Tom Kim
  • 9:25 a.m.: Thorbjørn Olesen, Maverick McNealy
  • 9:35 a.m.: Stephan Jaeger, Rasmus Højgaard
  • 9:45 a.m.: Nico Echavarria, Harris English
  • 9:55 a.m.: Brian Campbell, Taylor Moore
  • 10:15 a.m.: Cameron Young, Daniel Berger
  • 10:25 a.m.: An Byeong-hun, Collin Morikawa
  • 10:35 a.m.: Harry Hall, Austin Eckroat
  • 10:45 a.m.: Corey Conners, Nicolai Højgaard
  • 10:55 a.m.: Beau Hossler, Luke Donald
  • 11:05 a.m.: Matt Wallace, Tom McKibbin
  • 11:15 a.m.: Wyndham Clark, Rafael Campos
  • 11:25 a.m.: Joaquin Niemann, Tyrell Hatton
  • 11:35 a.m.: Marco Penge, Lucas Glover
  • 11:45 a.m.: Jon Rahm, Keegan Bradley
  • 11:55 a.m.: Viktor Hovland, Tommy Fleetwood
  • 12:15 p.m.: Adam Scott, Joe Highsmith
  • 12:25 p.m.: Eric Cole, Cam Davis
  • 12:35 p.m.: Tony Finau, Ben Griffin
  • 12:45 p.m.: Alex Noren, Ryo Hisatsune
  • 12:55 p.m.: Richard Bland, Davis Riley
  • 1:05 p.m.: Taylor Pendrith, Bryson DeChambeau
  • 1:15 p.m.: J.J. Spaun, Aaron Rai
  • 1:25 p.m.: Ryan Gerard, Garrick Higgo
  • 1:35 p.m.: Sam Stevens, Denny McCarthy
  • 1:45 p.m.: J.T. Poston, Robert MacIntyre
  • 2:05 p.m.: Ryan Fox, Alex Smalley
  • 2:15 p.m.: Michael Thorbjornsen, Christiaan Bezuidenhout
  • 2:25 p.m.: Max Homa, Scottie Scheffler
  • 2:35 p.m.: Matt Fitzpatrick, Kim Si Woo
  • 2:45 p.m.: Jhonattan Vegas, Matthieu Pavon

PGA Championship predictions and picks

Experts made their picks ahead of the tournament:

NBC Sports: Bryson DeChambeau

Ryan Lavner writes, ‘Bryson DeChambeau. There’s no one on the planet – not Rory, not Scottie – who is driving the ball as well as DeChambeau is at the moment. And it’s difficult to conjure up a more perfect venue for him, a 7,600-yard behemoth that will play even longer after the heavy rain and place a premium on finding the fairways and avoiding the wet, dense rough. DeChambeau’s iron play continues to be a question mark – it’s the only reason he didn’t win the Masters last month – but his short game and putting remains tidy enough to give him a significant advantage. If he continues to drive the ball like he has for the past year-plus, this is a great opportunity for him to knock off major No. 3.’

BetMGM: Bryson DeChambeau

‘Including a near miss at Augusta National this past weekend, DeChambeau has now recorded four top-10s in his last five major championships. Over his last nine major championships, DeChambeau owns five top-10s and four top-5s. One such success came last year at Valhalla, the most correlative course to Quail Hollow, per datagolf.com.’

Gambling Nerd: Scottie Scheffler

‘Despite never winning the event, Scheffler has finished in the top 10 in four of his five PGA Championship appearances … Scheffler will solidify his standing at the top of the world rankings with a win at Quail Hollow Club this year.’

Newsweek: Rory McIlroy

‘Scheffler may lead the odds to win, but McIlroy’s track record at Quail Hollow can’t be overlooked. The Northern Irishman has won four of his 12 appearances in the Wells Fargo Championship (now the Truist Championship) there, to go with five other top 10s. Add to that the level of play he has displayed this season (three wins, one major).’

This post appeared first on USA TODAY

The NASCAR Cup Series takes over historic North Wilkesboro Speedway in North Carolina on Sunday for the annual NASCAR All-Star Race.

Twenty-three drivers will race for a $1 million prize under the lights in prime time, with 20 qualifying automatically, two gaining entrances to the race through the All-Star Open and the final berth being awarded to the winner of the fan vote. This year’s All-Star Race will also be longer, going from 200 laps to 250 laps on the 0.625-mile track.

But before the drivers can tackle the All-Star Race, they had to compete in heat races on Saturday to set Sunday’s starting lineup. The heats also allowed drivers to get a feel for racing conditions on the short track. Brad Keselowski was fastest in qualifying and won the first of two heat races to lock up the pole position for Sunday’s race. Christopher Bell won the second heat race and will start on the outside of the front row.

The All-Star Open will precede the All-Star Race on Sunday, giving fans two events on Sunday to get their motors revved. Here’s all the information you need to get ready for the 2025 NASCAR All-Star Race and All-Star Open:

What time does the NASCAR All-Star Race start?

The 2025 NASCAR All-Star Race starts at 8 p.m. ET at North Wilkesboro Speedway in North Wilkesboro, North Carolina. It will be preceded by the NASCAR All-Star Open, which begins at 5 p.m. ET.

What TV channel is the NASCAR All-Star Race on?

FS1 is broadcasting the 2025 NASCAR All-Star Race and the All-Star Open.

Will there be a live stream of the NASCAR All-Star Race?

The 2025 NASCAR All-Star Race can be live streamed on Max and the FoxSports app. Viewers can also stream the race on Fubo, which is offering a free trial to new subscribers.

Watch the NASCAR All-Star Race on Fubo

How many laps is the NASCAR All-Star Race and All-Star Open?

  • The 2025 NASCAR All-Star Race is 250 laps around the 0.625-mile oval for a total of 156.25 miles. All laps count, and there will be a competition break at or around the 100-lap mark.
  • The All-Star Open is 100 laps. All laps count, and there will be a competition break at or around Lap 50. There will be one attempt at NASCAR Overtime if necessary. The top two finishers plus the All-Star Fan Vote winner will transfer to the All-Star Race and start in the rear of the field.

Who won the most recent NASCAR All-Star Race?

Joey Logano dominated the 2024 NASCAR All-Star Race, leading 199 of 200 laps before holding off Denny Hamlin by 0.636 seconds.

What is the lineup for the NASCAR All-Star Race?

The starting lineup for the 2025 NASCAR All-Star race was determined by the results of Saturday’s heat races. Heat 1 results determined the inside row to start Sunday’s race, while Heat 2 results determined the outside row (car number in parentheses):

  1. (6) Brad Keselowski, Ford … Fastest in qualifying
  2. (20) Christopher Bell, Toyota … Heat Race No. 2 winner
  3. (1) Ross Chastain, Chevrolet … Heat Race No. 1 2nd place
  4. (22) Joey Logano, Ford … Heat Race No. 2 2nd place
  5. (24) William Byron, Chevrolet … Heat Race No. 1 3rd place
  6. (9) Chase Elliott, Chevrolet … Heat Race No. 2 3rd place
  7. (12) Ryan Blaney, Ford … Heat Race No. 1 4th place
  8. (8) Kyle Busch, Chevrolet … Heat Race No. 2 4th place
  9. (48) Alex Bowman, Chevrolet … Heat Race No. 1 5th place
  10. (17) Chris Buescher, Ford … Heat Race No. 2 5th place
  11. (21) Josh Berry, Ford … Heat Race No. 1 6th place
  12. (99) Daniel Suárez, Chevrolet … Heat Race No. 2 6th place
  13. (45) Tyler Reddick, Toyota … Heat Race No. 1 7th place
  14. (19) Chase Briscoe, Toyota … Heat Race No. 2 7th place
  15. (3) Austin Dillon, Chevrolet … Heat Race No. 1 8th place
  16. (2) Austin Cindric, Ford … Heat Race No. 2 8th place
  17. (47) Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Chevrolet … Heat Race No. 1 9th place
  18. (51) Harrison Burton, Ford … Heat Race No. 2 9th place
  19. (5) Kyle Larson, Chevrolet … Heat Race No. 1 10th place
  20. (11) Denny Hamlin, Toyota … Heat Race No. 2 10th place
  21. All-Star Open winner
  22. All-Star Open 2nd place
  23. Fan vote winner

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This post appeared first on USA TODAY

For those of you who are a bit more steeped in technical analysis, you’ve likely heard of Dow Theory. A set of principles developed from Charles Dow, a journalist/analyst who founded what’s now the Wall Street Journal back in the late 19th century, Dow’s insight was foundational to modern technical analysis.

Here’s a question: How can we view today’s market using Dow Theory’s six core tenets?

The market seems to be turning around, especially after the recent 90-day pause in U.S.-China tariffs. What insights might Dow Theory give us about the current reversal? Let’s dive in.

#1: The Market Discounts All Known Information

Here’s the thing: When tariffs are used as a nimble and adjustable strategy for hardball negotiations, how can anyone possibly price in the data? Too many unknowns are hiding behind the cards played for the market to discount any data driven by fundamentals and geopolitics.

So, this tenet can probably be skipped for now.

#2: The Market Has Three Movements

We’d have to modify this slightly, as markets, several of which are globally accessible 24/5 via futures and digital platforms, have significantly altered the market dynamics since Dow’s time.

Still, his notion of primary and secondary trends is as relevant today as it was then. But increased market access and trading volume have created tertiary or micro-trends on a scale above the Dow’s third movement of daily fluctuations.

Take a look at this 15-year monthly chart of the S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX).

FIGURE 1. MONTHLY CHART OF THE S&P 500. The primary trend is up and is reversing from a deep secondary correction.

According to this tenet, one way to interpret this is that the primary trend is bullish and the corrections and bear markets, highlighted in yellow, are all secondary trends, as dramatic as they were on a smaller time scale.

Key insight: SPX’s primary trend is bullish, but the question is whether it has pulled out of its bearish secondary trend. It’s now trading above its 10-month simple moving average (SMA), which is roughly equivalent to a 200-day SMA, but whether it can hold is something to monitor.

#3: Primary Trends Have Three Phases

Is the broader market in an accumulation phase, where professional investors buy undervalued assets, a public participation phase, where retail investors are jumping in, or a distribution phase, where smart money sells to the euphoric retail crowd?

Take a look at this weekly chart.

FIGURE 2. WEEKLY CHART OF THE S&P 500. These indicators are based on surveys of retail and professional investor sentiment.

Two ways to gauge retail and professional sentiment and participation are by analyzing the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) and National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) surveys (respectively). Look at the current week (blue dotted line) and note how the AAII Bull-Bear indicator representing retail sentiment is still net bearish while the NAAIM indicator shows accumulation as the S&P 500 gaps above the 40-day SMA (equivalent to its 200-day counterpart).

In the weeks leading up to the current week, as the NAAIM levels increased while the AAII remained net bearish, the contrast between the two arguably signals the strong likelihood that the broader market is in the accumulation phase. But remain cautious as, with the first tenet on known information, any new information or change in global trade policy can disrupt this picture, sending the $SPX back below the 40-week.

#4: The Averages Must Confirm Each Other

Back in his day, Charles Dow was referring to the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average ($TRAN). Today, most investors look at the $INDU alongside $SPX and the Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ).

FIGURE 3. CHART OF THE BIG THREE U.S. MARKET INDICES. Visually, the charts look similar, but a closer look is warranted to see the differences in detail.

While the differences in price action are nuanced, a quick scan of all three on the StockCharts Market Summary page will tell you that all three indexes are more or less on even footing. But in the interest of saving space and not zooming in on each chart,at the time of writing, only the $SPX and $COMPQ are trading above their 200-day SMA; $INDU is just right below it.

Another way to measure this is by comparing market breadth, aka participation.

FIGURE 4. MARKET SUMMARY OF BREADTH AND BULLISH PERCENT INDEX. These indicators focus on market participation, something that price alone can’t show.

The window on the left tells you the percentage of stocks in each index trading above their 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages. Given the importance of the 200-day SMA, we’ll focus on that. While this window doesn’t show $INDU, you can see that over 54% of $SPX stocks and only 33% of $COMPQ stocks are trading above their 200-day SMA. However, the Nasdaq 100 Index ($NDX), a more tech-concentrated subgroup of $COMPQ, has the most bullish reading, with 64% of its stocks trading above this key level.

Switching over to the Bullish Percent Index (BPI) window on the right, the $SPX and $INDU have the strongest bullish participation with 74% and 83% of their stocks, respectively, signaling Point & Figure Buy Signals. The $COMPQ, at only 50%, is lagging the two (not the case with $NDX, however, which is also very bullish).

So, do the averages confirm each other? More or less, yes, with $COMPQ as the laggard. This may indicate a bullish turnaround in the secondary trend, but the secondary trend is also extremely vulnerable to sudden shifts in the geopolitical environment.

#5: Volume Confirms the Trend

Volume-based indicators that can help you gauge buying/selling pressure and accumulation and distribution.

FIGURE 5. CHART OF THE BIG THREE US MARKET INDEXES WITH VOLUME INDICATORS. Volume-based indicators like Chaikin Money Flow and Accumulation/Distribution Line give valuable insight into buying/selling pressure and accumulation/distribution.

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is positive in all three indexes, indicating more buying pressure than selling pressure. While the CMF readings are not as strong as they were in January and February, you might expect the levels to rise if the overall market begins to turn. The Accumulation/Distribution Line (ADL) is also exhibiting a steady increase, more so in the $SPX and $COMPQ than in the $INDU, which appears to be flattening.

In summary, volume is confirming the turnaround, but tentatively and cautiously.

#6: A Trend Remains in Effect Until a Clear Reversal Occurs

This is where a close examination of the underlying secondary trend structure is critical. You may have different ways to gauge when a market is trending up or down, or not trending at all.

I usually begin (and sometimes end) by looking at the relationship between price and sequential swing highs and swing lows. For example, take a look at this daily chart of $INDU.

FIGURE 6. DAILY CHART OF THE DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE INDEX. The index has reversed to the upside, but it’s important to monitor these key levels to determine whether the current reversal will develop into an uptrend.

Note that I’m using the ZigZag line to market the key swing highs and lows on the chart.

$INDU’s downtrend reversed when it broke above 40,750, the two swing high points that marked a key resistance level. Now, $INDU is aiming to challenge the next swing highs (resistance levels), which are situated in the range between 42,500 and 43,000. For the reversal to develop into an uptrend, $INDU must stay above the most recent swing low of 37,750 and eventually break above 43,000.

In short, and according to Dow theory, the downtrend has been broken, but the uptrend has not yet been confirmed by the price action.

At the Close

Dow Theory may be over a century old, but its principles remain surprisingly resilient, especially when viewed through the lens of today’s volatile, information-saturated markets. Right now, we’re seeing a bullish reversal in the markets. However, this reversal is happening on the secondary trend level, which is extremely vulnerable to sudden and severe shifts in today’s volatile geopolitical environment. In short, the trend may be turning, but as Charles Dow himself might suggest, don’t call it an uptrend until it proves itself.


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

SPY and QQQ crossed above their 200-day SMAs with big moves on Monday, and held above these long-term moving averages the entire week. The V-Reversal was extraordinary and SPY seems short-term overbought, but this cross above the 200 day SMA cross is a bullish signal for the most important market benchmark. Despite a bullish signal, long-term moving averages are trend-following indicators and it is important to set realistic expectations.

***** This is an abbreviated version of a research report covering the 200-day SMA, performance improvements and a twist for QQQ. Recent reports at TrendInvestorPro covered the V-Reversal, the Bottoming Process and an Exit Strategy for the Zweight Breadth Thrust. Click here to take a trial and get immediate access. *****

The chart below shows SPY with the 200-day SMA (blue). This 200-day cross captured two big uptrends since 2020 and foreshadowed the bear market in 2022. Even though these three signals look great, there were plenty of whipsaws along the way. SPY crossed the 200-day SMA 141 times since 2005, which averages 7 crosses per year. Averages can be deceptive because some years have more crosses than others. SPY did not cross its 200-day in 2021 and 2024, but there were 22 crosses between January 2022 and March 2023.

The indicator window shows Percent above MA (1,200,1) to better highlight these crosses. It turns positive (green) with a bullish cross and negative (red) with a bearish cross. The values are the percentage difference between the close and the 200-day SMA.  

There is no such thing as a perfect indicator. Trend-following indicators are great at catching big trends, but they are also prone to whipsaws (failed signals). Whipsaws are simply the price of admission for a trend-following strategy. We must take the good (big trends) with the bad (whipsaws). As the chart above confirms, trend-following works over time because one good trend pays for the whipsaws.

Chartists can improve 200-day SMA signals with a little smoothing. For example, use a 5-day SMA instead of the close. Since 2005, the 5-day SMA crossed its 200-day SMA 55 times, which averages out to 3 per year. Fewer signals means fewer whipsaws. Also note that this smoothing generated higher returns and lower drawdowns.

The chart above shows the SPY with Percent above MA (5,200,1). This indicator captures the percentage difference between the 5 and 200 day SMAs. Instead of 22 crosses between January 2022 and March 2023, the 5-day SMA crossed the 200-day SMA just 8 times. This indicator is part of the TIP Indicator Edge Plugin for StockCharts ACP.

We can reduce whipsaws even more by adding a signal filter. This next section will cover signal filters and performance metrics for SPY. We then show how other ETFs perform and add little twist to improve performance for QQQ signals. This section continues for subscribers to TrendInvestorPro. Click here to take a trial and get immediate access. 

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If you didn’t check in on the stock market the last couple of weeks, you might be surprised to see how strong they were this week.

The three major stock indexes — S&P 500 ($SPX), Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ), and Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) — broke through their 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) and are about 3–5% away from their all-time highs.

The Dow took a bit of a hit early this week, mostly because shares of UnitedHealth Group, Inc. (UNH) took a tumble. By Friday, though, the Dow recovered.

A Clearer Outlook Ahead

After dealing with an uncertain market, we’re finally seeing some encouraging signs. Large-cap growth stocks are trying to regain the lead, market breadth is improving (i.e. broader participation), and the Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX) has cooled off significantly.

Another helpful signal — the Bullish Percent Index (BPI) — is above 50% for the major indexes. This suggests that bulls are in control. In the 11 S&P sectors, there’s been a switcheroo. Consumer Staples and Utilities now have a BPI below 50%.

FIGURE 1: BULLISH PERCENT INDEXES FOR THE S&P SECTORS. Consumer Staples and Utilities are below 50%.

Want to dig into this yourself? You can view the full picture on the Market Summary page at StockCharts.com.

Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

AI Stocks Back in the Spotlight

If you’ve been following the buzz around artificial intelligence (AI), you know it’s a hot area. This week proved that AI stocks still had their mojo. A mix of headlines, from new global investments in AI to easing tech regulations, gave these stocks a boost.

The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) jumped over 10% this week. And NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA), one of the biggest names in AI, surged 16% for the week. The stock is now trading above its 200-day SMA and approaching its February high, which could act as a resistance level. This is the first time NVDA’s stock price broke above its 200-day SMA after breaking below it on February 27.

Other big names like Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) and Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg. (TSM) also saw solid gains.

FIGURE 2. SEMICONDUCTORS MARKETCARPET. Note that NVDA, AVGO, and TSM saw strong gains this week.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Investors Turning Toward “Offense”

Investors are rotating into offensive sectors such as Technology and Consumer Discretionary and moving away from traditionally “safe” areas like Utilities and Staples. This is an indication that investors are feeling more confident.

News of lower tariffs between the U.S. and China has eased fears, which is reflected in the performance of bellwether industries such as Home Builders, Transportation, and Retail. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) took a big hit on the possibility of high tariffs but bounced in early April. This week, the ETF gapped up and is now trading above its 200-day SMA (see chart below).

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF SPDR S&P RETAIL ETF (XRT). After getting hammered, XRT is showing signs of recovery. The stock is now gaining some traction. It’s trading above its 200-day SMA, and momentum is strengthening.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

XRT’s relative strength index (RSI) is rising above 70 and the percentage price oscillator (PPO) is well above zero. Both indicators suggest a rise in momentum.

A Word of Caution: Consumers Are Still Nervous

Amidst the excitement, we can’t ignore one concerning signal: consumer sentiment.. The latest reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index came in at 50.8, which is pretty close to the June 2022 reading of 50, when inflation was over 9%.

Results showed that consumers are worried about inflation — the expectation was a high 7.3%. Walmart (WMT) executives even mentioned during its recent earnings call that higher tariffs might lead to price increases. This is something to keep in the back of your mind because, when consumer sentiment weakens, it could ripple through the stock market.

Inflation expectations are starting to climb higher. The probability of the interest rate cuts has dropped, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Cuts in June and July are off the table now. The chart below is worth adding to one of your ChartLists.

FIGURE 4: INFLATION EXPECTATIONS ARE CREEPING HIGHER. It’s worth monitoring this chart because higher prices lead to less consumer spending and declining consumer confidence. This can be a headwind for equity markets.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The Bottom Line

When the stock market reverses course as quickly as it did this week, it doesn’t hurt to be skeptical. Before getting caught up in the euphoria, keep an eye on things like offensive vs defensive sector rotation, market breadth indicators, and key fundamentals such as inflation expectations. If inflation heats up again, the Fed will be reluctant to cut interest rates. This is the kind of thing that can put the brakes on a market rally.


End-of-Week Wrap-Up

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: 42,654 (+ 3.41%)
  • S&P 500: 5,958.38 (+ 5.27%)
  • Nasdaq Composite: 19,211 (+7.15%)
  • $VIX: 17.24 (-21.28%)
  • Best performing sector for the week: Technology
  • Worst performing sector for the week: Health Care
  • Top 5 Large Cap SCTR stocks: Palantir Technologies, Inc. (PLTR); Nebius Group NV (NBIS); NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG); Robinhood Markets Inc. (HOOD); Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI)

On the Radar Next Week

  • May PMI Flash
  • April Existing Home Sales
  • Earnings from Home Depot (HD), Lowe’s Companies (LOW), Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL), XPeng Inc. (XPEV), Snowflake (SNOW), Baidu Inc. (BIDU), and several others.
  • Fed speeches from Bostic, Jefferson, Williams, and others.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

We’ve all heard the classic market maxim, “Sell in May and go away.”  For many investors, that’s the introduction to market seasonality that suggests a six month period where it’s just best to avoid stocks altogether.

Through my own experience, complemented with interviews with seasonality experts like ”  We’ll dig deeper into the history of “Sell in May,” analyze summer trends in recent years, and focus on signs to follow in the weeks and months ahead!  Sign up HERE for this free event!


It turns out that the reason why “sell in May” has often worked out is less about May being super weak, but more about how major lows have usually come in the fall months.  Since the COVID low in early 2020, we’ve experienced major lows in September or October every year except for 2024.

Spring and Early Summer Have Been Crazy Strong

When we focus on the last five years, we can see that the May-June-July period has been consistently strong.  In fact, May and July have seen bullish trends every year since 2019.  So while investors often talk about the “summer doldrums” and weakness into the hot summer months, the recent evidence would suggest otherwise.

The weakest months since the COVID low have actually been January, February, September, and October.  So again, it’s been less about weakness in the spring, and much more about weaker price action into the traditional low in September or October.  Also note the strength in November, where the market is almost always rallying off a major low and setting up for a positive finish to the calendar year!

Will 2025 Follow the Normal Seasonal Pattern?

As I mentioned earlier, I like to think of seasonal patterns as tendencies.  There is no guarantee that July will be strong, and there is no way I can tell you for sure that the market will make yet another major low in September.  Seasonality tells you the general bias to the markets, but mindful investors know the most important evidence is price itself.

Given the extreme rally off the early April low, we’ve seen a rapid rotation from bearish sentiment to more bullish outlooks as investors have started to believe in the new uptrend phase.  This week’s price gap higher for the S&P 500 could provide a perfect support range to monitor in the coming weeks and months.

If the S&P 500 is able to hold 5750, and remain above the support range set from the gap earlier this month, then perhaps the equity markets will follow the same pattern as recent years and remain strong into August.

If, however, the S&P 500 is unable to hold this key support range, and we also confirm that breakdown with weaker momentum readings and deteriorating breadth conditions, then the S&P 500 may be charting a new course through what has become a strong period in the calendar year.

RR#6,

Dave

PS- Ready to upgrade your investment process?  Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

marketmisbehavior.com

https://www.youtube.com/c/MarketMisbehavior

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.  The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.  

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication.    Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.