Kawhi Leonard makes his pre-season debut as the Toronto Raptors host the New York Knicks on Tuesday. Live coverage on Sportsnet and Sportsnet+ begins at 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT, or follow along with our live tracker.
US stocks closed mixed on Monday as investors assessed rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions ahead of a busy week of corporate earnings and inflation data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook.
The S&P 500 slipped 0.05% to 7,807.79, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.38%, or 198.22 points, to close at 51,853.17.
The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.44% to 27,246.
The session came after all three major indexes recorded weekly gains, supported by technology stocks and optimism surrounding artificial intelligence investment.
Investors are now turning their attention to third-quarter earnings, with major US banks scheduled to report results, alongside September inflation figures and retail sales data.
Dow gains as technology stocks weigh on Nasdaq
The Dow outperformed the broader market, supported by a 2% increase in Salesforce shares after Bank of America upgraded the stock to Buy from Underperform.
Microsoft shares gained 0.9% after the company announced plans for a major deployment of its own artificial intelligence chips. Its market capitalisation briefly rose above $4 trillion for the first time in a year.
Meta also helped support the communication services sector, while energy stocks outperformed as crude prices climbed.
Technology and consumer discretionary stocks were among the weakest-performing sectors.
Micron Technology shares fell around 3% as investors assessed growing competition from China’s ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), which reported progress on a new memory-chip structure.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index declined to a three-week low, reflecting broader weakness across chip stocks.
Chipotle Mexican Grill shares also fell after Starbucks said it was not acquiring the burrito chain.
The S&P 500 finished nearly flat, reflecting the balance between gains in selected large-cap stocks and pressure on technology shares.
Oil prices climb amid Middle East tensions
Oil prices rose as attacks in the Middle East heightened concerns about potential disruptions to global energy supplies.
West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 2.06% to settle at $93.74 a barrel, while Brent crude futures rose 1.84% to $106.65.
The gains followed deadly attacks on Riyadh’s international airport over the weekend, which increased concerns about regional instability.
The developments overshadowed the prospect of additional Russian diesel supplies and a proposed Russia-Ukraine ceasefire covering energy infrastructure.
The increase in energy prices added to concerns about inflation, particularly as US Treasury yields have recently reached their highest levels in decades.
The Treasury market was closed on Monday for Columbus Day.
Cleveland Federal Reserve President Beth Hammack also indicated that the central bank should move relatively quickly towards a more restrictive monetary policy to address increasingly broad-based inflation pressures.
Traders were pricing in less than a 22% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October, according to CME’s FedWatch tool, compared with 17.7% on Friday.
Bank earnings and inflation data in focus
Investors are preparing for a busy week of corporate results, with major financial institutions including JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo scheduled to report earnings.
Analysts expect strong third-quarter results, supported partly by continued investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure.
FactSet estimates cited by CNBC indicated that S&P 500 earnings growth could reach 29.6%, marking a fourth consecutive quarter of growth above 25%.
September consumer price index data is due on Wednesday, followed by the producer price index and retail sales figures on Thursday.
The reports could influence expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next policy decision, particularly as rising energy prices complicate the inflation outlook.
Investors will also assess whether corporate earnings can sustain the recent stock market rally amid geopolitical uncertainty and higher borrowing costs.
The post Dow closes 198 pts higher as US stocks close mixed ahead of earnings appeared first on Invezz
This preview of weekly data examines USOIL and XAUUSD, with economic data expected later this week as the primary market drivers of the near-term outlook.
Highlights of the week: RBA meeting minutes, US inflation, British GDP, US PPI
Tuesday
- RBA meeting minutes at 12:30 AM GMT. These are published 2 weeks after the interest rate decision. They give full detail of the discussions and the different views, and record the votes of the members of the committee. This could spark some volatility in the Australian dollar and the instruments traded against it.
Wednesday
- Chinese inflation rate at 01:30 AM GMT. The market is expecting this figure to tick upwards by 0.2%, reaching 1% for September.
- US Inflation rate at 12:30 PM GMT, where the consensus is for an increase of around 0.3%, reaching 3.7% for September. If this is broadly accurate, then it might not influence a change in the stance of the Federal Reserve at their next meeting, where the probability for now is that they will keep the rates stable. On the other hand, if there is any significant surprise change in the actual figure, then it will affect the dollar in the short term.
Tuesday
- British GDP growth at 06:00 AM GMT. The market consensus is that the figure will decrease from 0.4% to -0.1% month over month. This might not have a major effect on the quid since it is for the month of August; however, it would provide some hints on the overall economic performance of the British economy.
- U.S Producers Price Index (PPI) at 12:30 PM GMT. Market participants are expecting the figure to come out at 0.5% over 0.4% of the previous reading. If this is confirmed, then it could potentially hint at higher inflation figures in the coming months since higher producers’ costs usually roll down to consumers, pushing inflation figures to the upside.
- Fed chair Kevin Warsh speech on Thursday at the IMF’s annual meeting in Bangkok. It’s a particularly interesting point in time because this is ahead of its two-day meeting ending on October 28 and could help markets have “less uncertainty” about the outcome of the meeting.
USOIL, daily
Oil prices fell as traders weighed rising Middle East tensions against resilient crude flows. Despite attacks on Saudi Arabia and another tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, exports from the Persian Gulf have recovered to around 17.5 million barrels a day, or 98% of pre-war levels, limiting the impact on supply. Markets are also assessing a potential Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire and Russia’s decision to resume some diesel exports, although the additional volumes are relatively small. Meanwhile, the IEA is calling for faster releases of diesel reserves as global fuel markets remain tight.
From a technical perspective, crude oil is showing sideways-to-bullish momentum, trading around $90 after finding support near the 50% Fibonacci level at $88. Price is holding above the rising 50-day moving average, while the 100-day moving average remains well below at around $83.5, supporting the broader bullish structure. The key resistance is at $91, followed by the 23.6% Fibonacci level around $95. A sustained break above $91 could open the way toward $95, while a move below $88 would weaken the setup and expose the 61.8% level at $85.
Gold-dollar, daily
Gold traded below $4,200 as investors weighed lower oil prices against persistent inflation risks and awaited key US economic data for clues on the Fed’s rate path. Falling Treasury yields and continued buying by gold ETFs and China’s central bank provided some support. However, gold remains under pressure from elevated bond yields and expectations of further monetary tightening. The metal has fallen about 20% since the US-Iran war began, while ongoing energy disruptions in the Middle East continue to create inflationary pressure. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s upcoming comments and US inflation data could provide further direction for gold.
From a technical point of view, gold rebounded from the support of $4,130 and is currently on route to test the resistance of $4,250, which is the next major resistance area consisting of the 61.8% daily Fibonacci retracement level and also the 100-day simple moving average. The Stochastic oscillator is in neutral levels hinting that there is potential for the price to move in either direction in the short term. The moving averages are validating the overall bullish trend despite the bearish trend which is in place since late August. The Bollinger Bands are also quite expanded, showing that there is sufficient volatility in the market to support any sharp moves; however, we might need a new catalyst in the market to see any sharp moves anytime soon.
Disclaimer: The opinions in this article are personal to the writer and do not reflect those of Exness.
After years of financial losses, Harvey Nichols has a new owner promising to turn around the struggling luxury retailer.
But the takeover has not stopped more store closures and rebranding plans. Several locations are now set to shut down or be converted to another retail brand as the new owner reshapes the business.
Founded in 1831, Harvey Nichols is a British luxury department store chain known for its upscale designer fashion, beauty products, fine wines, and gourmet food. Frasers Group acquired the retailer in August 2026.
Harvey Nichols closes more stores and converts others
Harvey Nichols is preparing to close its Birmingham store on Jan. 3, 2027, affecting at least 60 employees, The Guardian reported. The location, which opened in 2001 at The Mailbox shopping center, is the latest casualty of the retailer’s restructuring under Frasers Group.
The company is also converting its Leeds and Bristol stores to the Flannels brand, ending Harvey Nichols’ physical presence in both markets.
The changes follow the closure of Harvey Nichols’ Dublin store on Sept. 13 after administrators failed to find a way to keep the business operating. The shutdown ended the brand’s physical presence in Ireland and affected 33 workers.
Together, the closures and conversions mark a significant reduction in Harvey Nichols’ U.K. store network following its change in ownership.
After planned changes, the retailer’s remaining U.K. locations under the Harvey Nichols name are expected to include London, Edinburgh, and Manchester. International franchise locations in Riyadh, Dubai, Doha, Kuwait, and two in Hong Kong also remain part of its wider retail presence.
However, the future of the business is still taking shape. Frasers Group has said it will review and rationalize Harvey Nichols’ store portfolio, operating model, organizational structure, and cost base as it works to restore profitability.
Frasers Group CEO Michael Murray told Vogue Business that the company had purchased the Edinburgh and Manchester properties and planned to refurbish them. He also said Frasers Group is willing to invest “significant sums of money” in the London building, provided it can reach an agreement with the landlord.
Murray added that Frasers Group is looking at expansion opportunities for Harvey Nichols through franchise partners, with high potential in Georgia and India.
“The turnaround will require tough choices, and we are prepared to make those decisions, even if that means a smaller business in the near term, to create a stronger and more sustainable Harvey Nichols for the long term,” said Murray in a statement.
Harvey Nichols’ financial struggles
The store closures and conversions come after years of financial losses and a major change in ownership.
Hong Kong luxury goods businessman Dickson Poon acquired Harvey Nichols in 1991 from Debenhams and the Burton Group for £53 million. After 35 years of ownership, Poon put the retailer up for sale in June 2026 as it struggled with mounting losses and a lack of profitability.
Harvey Nichols had not returned to profitability following the Covid pandemic and warned that it could run out of money within a year without additional investment.
The retailer reported a £105 million ($142 million) loss after tax for the year ending March 29, 2025, after writing off intercompany loans, according to its annual report and financial statements.
Revenue fell from £204.8 million ($277 million) to £184.8 million ($250 million) during the year, while pre-tax losses widened from £34 million ($46 million) to £49 million ($66 million). The retailer’s accumulated pre-tax losses had reached more than £140 million ($189 million) over five years.
The financial pressure reflects challenges facing both Harvey Nichols and the wider luxury retail market, including weaker consumer demand, higher operating costs, online competition, and changes in international shopping patterns.
The end of tax-free shopping for tourists in the U.K. has also weighed on luxury retailers that rely on international visitors.
After months of uncertainty, Frasers Group confirmed on Aug. 13 that it had acquired Harvey Nichols through a pre-pack administration process. The deal included six U.K. stores, the retailer’s online business, existing inventory, more than 1,000 employees, and its international franchise agreements.
The Dublin business was handled separately from the main acquisition, while the OXO Tower restaurant in London was excluded from the transaction and sold to another buyer.
The takeover marked the beginning of a major restructuring effort as Frasers Group works to restore profitability and determine how Harvey Nichols fits into its broader retail portfolio.
The strategy also reflects Frasers Group’s broader ambitions in luxury retail. The company already operates Flannels and has built a portfolio of luxury-related investments and retail businesses.
Integrating Harvey Nichols into that network gives Frasers Group another established name to work with, but the latest store decisions show that preserving the brand’s existing footprint is not the priority at every location.
Fashion retail rivals close stores and exit markets
Harvey Nichols is not alone in navigating a difficult retail environment. Luxury and fashion companies have been closing stores, reducing their footprints, and shifting their operations in response to changing consumer demand and pressure on profitability.
The circumstances differ across these retailers, ranging from financial distress and restructuring to strategic decisions about store locations and brand positioning.
Here’s some of my previous coverage of recent store closures:
- Saks Global: Plans to close an additional nine stores following the shutdown of hundreds of locations and its Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing.
- Kering: Closed 133 locations across its brands in 2025, with an additional 100 store shutdowns scheduled worldwide in 2026.
- Capri Holdings: Closed 41 locations across its brands in the year ending June 27, 2026.
- Prada Group: Closed 10 Versace stores since the end of 2025 and plans to shutter more locations while relocating select boutiques to stronger markets in 2026 and 2027.
- Tapestry: Closed 64 directly operated stores during fiscal 2026.
The closures and store conversions underscore that the turnaround will not necessarily preserve Harvey Nichols’ existing physical footprint, potentially leaving some consumers with fewer opportunities to shop in person.
Related: Nearly 200-year-old retailer exits an entire market
Games like one William Contreras delivered on Monday elevate players to new levels of stardom, and new levels of fanfare.
Ben Nicholson-Smith has more on how Contreras and the Brewers stepped up to take a commanding NLCS lead over the Dodgers.
Amazon is in talks to acquire Decart, a fast-growing artificial intelligence (AI) company. According to the WSJ, Amazon is planning to buy the company in a $7 billion deal, marking a big jump from its last funding round in May, which valued it at $4 billion.
Neither side has confirmed the deal, and according to the WSJ, talks could still fall apart or another suitor can come up.
The company has been growing fast, helped by the adequate capital from top venture capital firms like Sequoia Capital, Benchmark, Radical Ventures, Zeev Ventures, Nvidia, and Toyota Ventures.
Decart is creating software that makes it easier for developers to switch between different AI chips, a capability that has become more popular this year. It is also known for models that generate interactive video and simulated environments as one interacts with them. These models are known as Lucy and Oasis.
The potential acquisition comes a few months after Amazon Web Services gave Decart an early access to its Tranium chip. It was highly impressed by the founders, according to the WSJ.
The report comes at a time when Amazon is aiming to become a major player in various areas in the AI space. It is one of the biggest shareholders in Anthropic, a company that will launch an IPO at a $2 trillion valuation.
It has also built Tranium, its chips that it hopes will be bigger competitors to those made by Nvidia. Most importantly, Amazon is becoming a major infrastructure provider for companies in the AI industry. It is in the process of spending $220 billion in capital expenditure this year.
The report also comes at a time when large companies are scooping promising AI startups. As we reported earlier, Nvidia is in talks to acquire Reflection AI, a company that makes open-source AI models. If the deal goes through, it will be the biggest one it has executed. It recently announced a plan to acquire Hugging Face for $13 billion.
SpaceX recently acquired Cursor for $60 billion. Meta Platforms also made a bid for Manus, before abandoning it amid regulatory concerns. AMD recently acquired World Labs for $8.2 billion, while Stripe acquired OpenRouter for $7.2 billion.
The post Amazon plans $7 billion acquisition of Decart, a fast-growing AI startup appeared first on Invezz
A US import license is not a diesel cargo, and the cargo President Trump named is not a day of American use. The arrangement will not cut the pump price on the volumes put in writing. On 9 October he said Russia would supply more than 300,000 tons now, which Tim Armitage of Quilter Cheviot put at about 2.25 million barrels, then 500,000 tons in November and 1 million tons after that. The EIA four-week average for distillate product supplied, ending 2 October, was 3.769 million barrels a day, so the first tranche covers about 14 hours. AAA diesel was $6.28 a gallon on Thursday 8 October and $6.277 on Sunday 11 October.
Russia has not reopened exports. On Saturday Moscow carved 500,000 tonnes out of a producer ban extended through 31 October. At 7.5 barrels per metric ton, that carve-out is 3.75 million barrels, about one day of the same EIA rate. A license to buy one day of demand does not reprice a national average.
Key facts
- President Trump wrote on Truth Social on 9 October that Russia would immediately supply over 300,000 tons of diesel, another 500,000 tons in November, 1 million tons after that, and 3 million tons later if refineries allowed it, as quoted by The Hill.
- Tim Armitage, investment strategist at Quilter Cheviot, told the BBC on 9 October that the first tranche was approximately 2.25 million barrels against daily US use of around 3.8 million barrels. Dividing 2.25 million by 300,000 tons gives 7.5 barrels per metric ton.
- AAA diesel was $6.28 a gallon on 8 October, down 0.1 percent, in the EIA’s AAA Fuel Gauge reprint. As of 11 October the AAA page showed $6.2771, against $6.3434 a week earlier, $3.6688 a year earlier, and a record $6.5276 on 22 September. EIA, AAA.
- NYMEX ultra-low sulfur diesel settled on Friday 9 October at $4.73 a gallon, down $0.2271, or 4.61 percent. WTI settled at $91.85, down $0.21, and December Brent at $104.72, down $0.28. DTN, 9 October.
- OFAC General License 135, signed by Director Bradley T. Smith on 9 October, authorizes Russian-origin diesel transactions through 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on 7 April 2027. It does not authorize a debit to the Central Bank, the National Wealth Fund, or the Ministry of Finance. Treasury.
- The Russian government said on 10 October that a partial lifting of the diesel export ban took effect that day, allowing 500,000 tonnes onto the global market at this stage. TRT World.
- EIA distillate stocks were 105.1 million barrels in the week ending 2 October, 13.5 percent under 121.6 million a year earlier. The four-week product-supplied average was 3.769 million barrels a day. Exports were 1.764 million barrels a day and imports 118,000, per DTN on the same EIA report. EIA weekly highlights, released 7 October.
What just happened, and why the obvious reading is wrong
The obvious reading is that Washington flipped a sanctions switch and the pump is about to fall. The text does something narrower. Treasury posted on X on Friday that, at President Trump’s direction, OFAC was immediately issuing a temporary general license to allow Russian diesel onto the global market. General License 135 authorizes the sale, delivery, offloading, and importation of Russian-origin diesel, including into the United States. A license removes a legal barrier for US persons. It does not load a tanker, and it names no volume.
The volume is in Trump’s Truth Social post, which The Hill quoted: over 300,000 tons immediately, 500,000 tons in November, and 1 million tons immediately thereafter, plus 3 million tons “within a short period of time” only “based on the condition of their Diesel Refineries.” The White House posted his price line the same evening: diesel prices “will be COMING DOWN, IN RECORD NUMBERS, AND FAST.” That is a forecast. The license is not evidence for it. Trump has no matching status on X, and the Truth Social page did not return the post text on request.
The arithmetic fails the forecast. Armitage’s 2.25 million barrels divided by the EIA four-week rate of 3.769 million barrels a day is 0.60 of a day, about 14 hours. The three near-term slices are 1.8 million tons, or 13.5 million barrels at 7.5 barrels per ton, which is 3.6 days. The conditional 3 million tons is another 22.5 million barrels, about six days, and only if the refineries he cited can make it. A promise tied to damaged refineries is not a cargo.
Saturday’s statement from Moscow is the only government volume. TRT World quoted it: the decision took effect on 10 October and “will allow for the supply of 500,000 tonnes of diesel fuel to the global market at this stage.” Companies would contract in coordination with the government. That quota is not the 4.8 million ton sum of every figure in the post. The producer ban FinanceFeeds described on 2 October and again on 5 October, through 31 October, was not repealed. It was notched.
Who is exposed
The price sits with the US buyer of on-highway diesel, not with a futures account. AAA’s national average was $6.2771 on Sunday, $2.61 above the year-ago $3.6688, about 71 percent. Trucking, farms, and distillate heat pay that number. A book marked to Friday’s $4.73 ULSD settle is a different market. Sunday’s pump minus Friday’s future is about $1.55 a gallon, on different days, and the gap is tax, distribution, and retail margin. General License 135 does not cut it.
US refiners sit on the other side. DTN said EIA distillate exports rose to 1.764 million barrels a day from 1.529 million, while imports fell to 118,000 from 153,000. Seven days of those exports are about 12.3 million barrels, close to the whole near-term Russian schedule of 13.5 million and several times the 3.75 million barrel carve-out. A refiner that can still sell abroad does not have to cut the rack because one day of foreign diesel might later clear customs.
Russian producers gain a buyer only inside the quota. Alexander Novak, deputy prime minister, said production can cover the home market and “the specified export volumes,” which in that statement means 500,000 tonnes, not the refinery-conditional 3 million tons. European buyers are outside the license. Kaja Kallas wrote that EU ministers were set to approve more listings on Monday, not a matching waiver.
What the tape and the balances actually show
Friday’s products market moved and the pump did not. DTN said ULSD settled at $4.73, down $0.2271, or 4.61 percent, while WTI and Brent each fell by less than 30 cents. Sunday’s AAA print of $6.2771 is still the Thursday $6.28 at the cent. The week-ago $6.3434 is 4 October, before the call, so that 6.6 cent slide is not evidence the license worked.
| Item | Figure | Versus US use | Source and date |
|---|---|---|---|
| First tranche | Over 300,000 tons, about 2.25 million barrels | 0.60 of a day, about 14 hours | The Hill and BBC, 9 October |
| November and the next slice | 1.5 million tons, 11.25 million barrels | With the first slice, 3.6 days | Same post, times 7.5 |
| If refineries allow | 3 million tons, 22.5 million barrels | About 6.0 more days, undated | The Hill, 9 October |
| Moscow’s carve-out | 500,000 tonnes, 3.75 million barrels | About 1.0 day, and the only authorized volume | TRT, 10 October |
| US distillate use | 3.769 million barrels a day | Four-week average ending 2 October | EIA highlights, 7 October |
| US distillate exports | 1.764 million barrels a day | About 12.3 million barrels a week | EIA via DTN, 9 October |
| Stocks | 105.1 million barrels, 13.5 percent under last year | About 27.9 days of cover at the four-week rate | EIA, week ending 2 October |
| Pump and ULSD | $6.277 Sunday, $4.73 Friday, down 4.61 percent | Pump unchanged at the cent from $6.28 | AAA, 11 October; DTN, 9 October |
EIA Table 6 has distillate stocks at 105.1 million barrels, 13.5 percent under 121.6 million a year earlier. DTN put the gap at 16.4 million barrels: about seven times the first tranche and about four times Saturday’s carve-out. Dividing 105.1 by 3.769 gives 27.9 days of cover.
What officials have said, and what they have not
Trump’s post is a schedule and a price claim, not a contract, a loading date, or a named buyer, seller, or terminal.
Putin, as quoted by the BBC, confirmed willingness rather than tonnes: “The Russian side confirmed its willingness to supply oil and petroleum products to the US market and global markets at large.” The tonne cap that exists is Saturday’s.
Novak, in the statement TRT World carried, said: “Production volumes are sufficient to fully supply both the domestic market and the specified export volumes to the global market.” He also said the decision would not affect Russian consumers. That is a claim about spare barrels, not a loading document.
Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, told The Hill on Friday, before the partial lift: “I’m quite skeptical about those type of volumes being exported, given that currently Russia has imposed a diesel export ban in October.” He called 300,000 tons and 500,000 tons “quite small” against the global diesel market. Saturday’s carve-out is the size he called small.
Tim Armitage, investment strategist at Quilter Cheviot, told the BBC the figures were “relatively small,” and then: “so it won’t make a material difference to pump prices in the US.” He added: “Granted, there are then two more releases to come, but it does appear to be a slightly desperate move by President Trump to try to lower inflation ahead of the midterms.”
Volodymyr Zelensky, president of Ukraine, wrote on X on Friday: “Gifts to Putin will not bring peace or any benefit to the civilized world.” And: “Allowing Russia to sell petroleum products is an investment in a war that must be ended, not prolonged.” He also wrote that there must be sanctions under the Lindsey Graham bill. Kaja Kallas, EU high representative for foreign affairs, wrote on X the next day: “Suspending sanctions on Russian diesel provides Moscow with more revenues to wage war.” And: “This is not the time to ease pressure on Russia, and Europe won’t.” Neither said the US pump would fall.
The regulatory tension
General License 135 authorizes transactions otherwise barred by the Russian Harmful Foreign Activities Sanctions Regulations, or by the Ukraine-/Russia-Related Sanctions Regulations, when they relate to Russian-origin diesel, through 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on 7 April 2027. It does not authorize a debit to an account at a US financial institution of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the National Wealth Fund, or the Ministry of Finance. A trader can be cleared to buy the fuel and still blocked on the payment path into those state accounts. That is compliance friction, not extra supply.
The legal window runs almost six months. The physical window Moscow opened is 500,000 tonnes “at this stage,” from 10 October, inside a producer ban set through 31 October. The Hill also reported an 18 October choice: impose energy sanctions under the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia Act, signed in September, or waive them. Zelensky asked for those sanctions. Neither choice changes the 14-hour size of the first cargo, and Kallas said Europe was lining up more listings, not a matching license.
Bull, base, and bear for the pump
The spot is AAA’s national diesel average of $6.277 a gallon on Sunday 11 October 2026. It is a retail survey, not an equity close and not Friday’s $4.73 ULSD settlement. Bull is a higher pump, and bear is the fast decline Trump described. FinanceFeeds noted retail diesel near the September record in its 22 September Brent piece. These cases are calculated from the Sunday AAA print, not from that note.
Bear, $5.99. Apply Friday’s 4.61 percent ULSD drop to the Sunday pump: 6.277 times 0.9539 is 5.99, about 29 cents under the spot, or 4.6 percent. That requires full pass-through, Russian barrels arriving, and refiners stopping the 1.764 million barrel-a-day export flow. None of those conditions is in the license.
Base, $6.21. The latest weekly AAA change is 6.2771 minus 6.3434, a drop of 6.6 cents, about 1.0 percent, and most of that week predates the announcement. Repeat it and the print is $6.21, about 1.1 percent under Sunday. This case needs the recent drift, not a Russian cargo. Thursday to Sunday already failed to reprice the average.
Bull, $6.53. The AAA record is $6.5276 on 22 September, which rounds to $6.53. Against $6.277 that is 25 cents, or 4.0 percent. This case needs the 15 October EIA report to leave stocks near 105.1 million barrels, the carve-out not to load, and retail to retest a price that already printed.
| Case | Pump price | Versus Sunday $6.277 | What has to be true |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $5.99 | Minus $0.29, or 4.6 percent | The 4.61 percent wholesale drop passes through, the cargo arrives, and exports do not absorb it |
| Base | $6.21 | Minus about $0.07, or 1.1 percent | The latest 6.6 cent weekly AAA drift repeats, and the license does not reprice the average |
| Bull | $6.53 | Plus $0.25, or 4.0 percent | Retail retests the 22 September record of $6.5276 if the carve-out does not load and stocks stay tight |
This is not financial advice.
What happens next
Thursday 15 October is the next EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, at noon and 2 p.m. Eastern, delayed because the federal government is closed on Monday 12 October. If distillate stocks build by less than the 3.75 million barrels in the Saturday carve-out, the Russian diesel has not arrived in size. Two more weeks of the 6.6 cent AAA drift leave the average near $6.14, so the Friday 16 October print should still be above $6.14.
Saturday 31 October is the end date of the producer ban earlier FinanceFeeds Brent notes flagged. The chain runs through a second Russian resolution, not through OFAC. If Moscow publishes no wider allowance before then, November’s 500,000 tons and the following 1 million tons stay a social-media schedule. The only tonne figure with a government verb on it would still be the 500,000 allowed on 10 October.
Tuesday 3 November is the midterm date Reuters treated as the political deadline. If AAA diesel is still near $6.21 or higher that morning, the arrangement will have failed the White House line that prices would come down fast, even with the license still running to 7 April 2027.
Frequently asked questions
Will that arrangement cut the pump price?
No. The first cargo is about 14 hours of US distillate use, and AAA diesel was $6.277 on Sunday 11 October, essentially unchanged from $6.28 on Thursday. Russia’s own step, a 500,000 tonne carve-out effective 10 October, is still about one day of demand. A futures drop to $4.73 on Friday did not pass through to the pump, and US distillate exports of 1.764 million barrels a day dwarf the licensed cargo.
How big is 300,000 tons next to US diesel use?
About 2.25 million barrels, using the figure Tim Armitage gave the BBC, which is 7.5 barrels per metric ton. The EIA four-week average for distillate product supplied was 3.769 million barrels a day ending 2 October, so 2.25 divided by 3.769 is 0.60 of a day, or roughly 14 hours. The three near-term slices together, 1.8 million tons, are 13.5 million barrels, or about 3.6 days. That is the whole near-term promise, not a new supply regime.
Is Russia’s diesel export ban still in force?
Not in full, and not repealed. Late last month the government extended the producer ban on diesel, marine fuel, and gasoil through 31 October. On 10 October it partially lifted that ban and said 500,000 tonnes could be supplied “at this stage,” with contracts coordinated with the government. The rest of the schedule in Trump’s post does not have a matching Russian authorization in the statements fetched for this piece.
What does the Treasury license allow, and until when?
OFAC General License 135, dated 9 October, authorizes transactions related to the sale, delivery, offloading, and importation of Russian-origin diesel, including into the United States, through 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on 7 April 2027. It does not authorize debits to accounts of the Central Bank, the National Wealth Fund, or the Ministry of Finance. It sets no tonnage. The barrels, if any, have to come from Moscow’s quota.
Why did diesel futures fall on Friday if the pump did not?
DTN reported the Friday ULSD settlement at $4.73, down $0.2271, or 4.61 percent, after the announcement. Brent and WTI barely moved. Retail is a surveyed national average with tax and distribution in it, and it was already $6.28 on Thursday. A one-day futures reaction to a headline can print before anyone knows whether a tonne will load. From Thursday to Sunday, AAA diesel did not follow the contract.
Who benefits if the 500,000 tonnes actually load?
Russian sellers who can contract inside the Saturday quota, which is the revenue Kaja Kallas and President Zelensky objected to. US pump buyers do not, on the arithmetic above, because 3.75 million barrels is about one day of use and the country is exporting far more than that every day. Refiners that live on the 1.764 million barrel-a-day export flow are not forced to cut the rack by a cargo of that size.
When I was a kid, Nike was the pinnacle of cool footwear.
Of course, there were other competitive athletic shoe brands like Reebok and Adidas, but thanks to its brand partnerships with NBA stars such as Michael Jordan and Penny Hardaway (ok, now I’m dating myself), Nike (NKE) always stood head and shoulders above the rest.
That success carried on for decades after the 90s, thanks to Jordan Brand and an increasingly popular apparel subdivision. But somewhere along the way, someone convinced Nike that it was a smart move to give up the retail shelf space it had spent decades monopolizing in favor of a direct-to-consumer online sales model.
At first, the DTC model was praised by Wall Street analysts across the board, leading to an all-time stock high of $161.92 on Nov. 5, 2021.
But there has been a steady decline since then as competitors started filling the shelf space that Nike abandoned, and the company’s prediction of an online retail-first future did not come to fruition.
Also read: Invest in Nike? Only With Your Money
Nike’s DTC revenue fell 9% year over year to $4.1 billion in the quarter, while its Jordan Brand revenue (which represents 13% of global business) fell in the mid-teens.
Earlier this month, Nike released its first quarter results, sending shares to multi-year lows as revenue declined year over year and the company’s EPS guidance fell short.
Now, in a note shared with TheStreet, analysts at Deutsche Bank said Nike has a long way to go to regain its former glory.
Deutsche Bank plots “long road ahead” for Nike
Nike shares closed the Oct. 9 session slightly down to $34.71. Shares are trading at about a fifth of their all-time high reached five years ago and are down about 50% from their 52-week high of $70.44.
Deutsche Bank analyst Krisztina Katai sees a long road ahead.
Concerns about revenue persist as Nike shared earnings guidance well below expectations. Nike expects to earn between $1.15 and $1.35 per share this fiscal year, below Wall Street’s consensus of $1.66 per share, while revenue is expected to decline in the high-single-digit percentage range.
“NKE’s EPS reset was deeper than expected (we were at $1.44 ahead of the print),
and the key investor question is whether this marks the final estimate cut. While
FY27 guidance may provide a near-term floor for earnings revisions, we continue
to see a turnaround that remains in the middle innings, with Sportswear, Jordan,
and China still under pressure,” Katai said in a note to subscribers this week.
According to her, Nike’s path to an annualized EPS above $2 per share is a five-year plan. So there won’t be a quick inflection coming anytime soon. Nike reported an annual EPS of $3.73 as recently as fiscal 2024, according to Macrotrends.
What are the Nike bulls getting wrong?
As Katai points out, Nike bulls argue that the new EPS guidance is actually a good thing because it puts a floor on estimate revisions in the near term, giving the company’s management a more favorable setup should they be able to execute.
It seems like a classic case of underpromise and overdeliver. However, there are issues with that line of thinking.
Related: TJMaxx, Marshalls appear to have a customer problem
“Bears counter that Jordan remains early in its turnaround, Sportswear trends continue to deteriorate, and the innovation pipeline is unlikely to offset ongoing marketplace inventory actions over the medium term,” Katai said.
According to Deutsche Bank, the underlying operating data supports the bear view of Nike stock as seasonality did not help Nike overcome the issues from its most recent quarter.
“Despite a quarter that should have benefitted from major football-related demand drivers, footwear and apparel units declined -5% and -2%, respectively (vs. -4% and -8% in 4Q), while footwear average selling prices decelerated sequentially to -1% YOY from flat in 4Q,” Katai said.
“For our part, while we acknowledge that FY27 guidance may establish a near-
term floor for estimates, we remain cautious on the longer-term path. Core Nike Sportswear represented roughly 50% of 1Q27 revenue, and when combined
with Jordan, nearly two-thirds of the business is still undergoing portfolio
repositioning.”
Deutsche Bank lowers Nike estimates and price target
With DB analysts clearly in the bear category, the first lowered its estimates across the board. Now its fiscal 2028 and 2029 estimates sit 17% and 18% below Wall Street’s consensus, respectively, with revenue forecast to continue to fall in fiscal 2028 before returning to modest growth in fiscal 2029.
Deutsche Bank lowered its price target to $33 per share from $37 while maintaining its “hold” position on the stock.
But the firm also cited downside risks that include stalling growth in North America, signs of elevated wholesale inventory, and elasticity impacts from tariff-driven price increases.
An NLCS rematch begins with a pitchers’ duel as Jacob Misiorowski and the Milwaukee Brewers welcome Tarik Skubal and the Los Angeles Dodgers for Game 1 on Sunday. Live coverage on Sportsnet and Sportsnet+ begins at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT, or follow along with our live tracker.
US stocks rose on Friday as technology shares rebounded from a sell-off earlier in the week, helping Wall Street recover amid elevated Treasury yields, volatile oil prices, and concerns about artificial intelligence valuations.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 423 points, while investors looked ahead to third-quarter earnings and upcoming inflation data.
The Dow rose 0.8% to 51,661.54, while the S&P 500 gained 0.6% to 7,811.71. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.64% to 27,365.00.
All three major indexes recorded weekly gains, with the S&P 500 rising around 1% over the period.
Technology stocks rebound after AI-related sell-off
Technology shares led Friday’s gains, recovering some of the losses recorded on Thursday after concerns about OpenAI’s reported revenue figures weighed on AI-linked stocks.
OpenAI reportedly told investors that its annualised revenue stood at $50 billion at the end of September.
A previously reported figure of $68 billion included gross revenue from partners, according to a person familiar with the matter.
The Nasdaq fell more than 1% on Thursday, marking its biggest one-day decline since mid-August. T
he latest rebound lifted software and technology shares, with Palo Alto Networks gaining nearly 5%, CrowdStrike rising 4% and Palantir Technologies advancing 3%. Microsoft and Amazon each gained around 2%.
AI-related stocks have been a major driver of the US bull market, which was approaching its fourth anniversary.
However, concerns about high valuations and the scale of debt and equity financing supporting AI infrastructure investments have contributed to recent volatility.
Investors are also preparing for third-quarter earnings season, which could provide further evidence of whether AI demand is translating into stronger corporate revenue and profits.
SpaceX spectrum deal pressures telecom stocks
SpaceX shares rose after the company announced a deal to acquire a nationwide low-band spectrum portfolio, expanding its ambitions in wireless communications and increasing competitive pressure on established US telecom operators.
The agreement weighed on shares of AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile, which ended sharply lower. Investors are assessing how SpaceX’s move could affect competition in the wireless market.
Elsewhere, healthcare stocks also supported the broader market.
Humana surged after US government data showed that 95% of its members were enrolled in Medicare Advantage plans rated four stars or higher for 2027.
Merck and Gilead Sciences also gained nearly 3% each, while Moderna shares rose amid optimism surrounding reported US National Institutes of Health cancer vaccine efforts.
Apple shares declined after a Nikkei Asia report said the company had asked some suppliers to reduce component orders for its newly launched iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max.
The reported cuts come as rising memory costs and higher device prices raise concerns about consumer demand.
Delta Air Lines also fell after cutting its annual profit forecast, citing fuel costs that were outpacing gains from fares.
Oil, Treasury yields and earnings in focus
Oil prices remained volatile as investors assessed developments in the Middle East.
Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate futures each settled around 0.4% higher on Friday after initially retreating following President Donald Trump’s comments that the US would not attack Iran before the midterm elections.
Long-dated Treasury yields edged higher but remained below the 24-year highs reached earlier in the week. Elevated borrowing costs and uncertainty over inflation continue to influence investor sentiment.
Next week, major US banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America, are scheduled to report quarterly results.
Johnson & Johnson and UnitedHealth are also due to release earnings.
Analysts expect aggregate third-quarter earnings growth of 30.6% for S&P 500 companies, according to LSEG data, with the energy and technology sectors expected to record some of the strongest year-over-year growth.
Investors will also monitor upcoming inflation data for clues about the Federal Reserve’s next policy decision, while developments in oil markets and AI-related spending remain key risks for equities.
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