Another gem from ace Drew Rasmussen and just enough offence from their high-pressure lineup paced the Rays to a win over the Guardians on Sunday.
The artificial intelligence trade has faced several headwinds this year, but last week’s sell-off struck at the foundations of the multiyear AI infrastructure boom, revealing a stark shift in investor sentiment as warnings about financing costs and returns become harder to ignore.
The week began with industry leaders highlighting the growing importance of capital availability and the cost of financing AI infrastructure.
Intel and Broadcom executives warned that funding could become a major constraint on the industry’s expansion, reflecting mounting pressure on companies to demonstrate returns on their investments.
“If there’s any challenge in the front, it’s capital and the cost of capital, and then the other part is in the longer run, people want to see the ROI,” said Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan.
The warnings came as bond yields remained elevated, increasing borrowing costs for companies investing heavily in data centres and computing capacity.
The economics of these investments depend partly on how quickly demand for computing power grows and whether it generates sufficient revenue to justify the spending.
Inflation and competition add to AI concerns
Competition from China also continued to weigh on semiconductor stocks, particularly memory-chip makers, as ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) advances its development of higher-grade memory products.
A hotter-than-expected US consumer price index report added to the pressure by pointing to broader inflationary forces, strengthening concerns that interest rates could remain elevated for longer.
Anthropic’s third-quarter revenue figures provided another reason for investors to reassess expectations.
The AI company reportedly generated $16.8 billion in revenue during the September quarter, an increase of nearly 50% from the previous quarter.
While growth remained substantial, it represented a slowdown from the roughly 140% sequential increase reported between the first and second quarters.
The figures came amid growing questions about whether the revenue generated by AI companies will be sufficient to support the industry’s enormous infrastructure commitments.
Gartner warns of potential infrastructure overspending
A Gartner report added to the concerns, warning that more than $3.5 trillion of AI infrastructure spending could be exposed to impairment by the end of 2030 if providers continue their current pace of investment.
AI providers are projected to spend $7 trillion on infrastructure through 2030, while Gartner estimates they will generate no more than $3.6 trillion in related revenue over the same period.
Neocloud providers, which rent computing capacity to AI developers and other customers, could be particularly vulnerable to the imbalance between spending and revenue.
Gartner predicts that by 2030, cost pressures and a lack of differentiated business models will force more than 80% of neocloud providers to cease independent operations.
The warning follows a report by Bain & Company last month that highlighted the scale of investment required to sustain the AI boom.
By 2031, annual spending on AI infrastructure could reach $1.5 trillion, including new data centres and computing capacity, as well as upgrades to existing GPUs, memory and networking equipment, Bain estimated.
Assuming capital expenditure represents about 25% of industry revenue, sustaining that level of investment would require an AI market approaching $6 trillion annually.
Debt markets signal growing financing pressure
The Gartner report weighed on neocloud companies such as Nebius and CoreWeave, while rising yields on CoreWeave’s outstanding debt reflected investors’ growing demand for compensation for the risks associated with financing the sector.
The yield to maturity on CoreWeave’s 9.625% bond due in 2032 reached 14.8%, while its 9.75% bond due in 2031 yielded around 14.9%.
Financing conditions have also become more challenging across the wider AI ecosystem.
Sources on Wall Street previously told Axios that the AI buildout was less concerning when companies could finance it with cash.
However, around a third of AI capital expenditure is now being funded through debt, the publication reported, while capital markets are showing signs of fatigue.
Global AI-related debt issuance fell to $23 billion in September 2026 from $113 billion in June, the Financial Times reported.
Companies are delaying fundraising plans or paying more to raise capital as investors demand stronger evidence that they can withstand higher interest rates and rising computing costs.
Listings involving Blackstone-backed AirTrunk REIT, Nvidia-backed Firmus and SoftBank-backed SB Energy have been pulled or paused.
“The conversation has shifted from growth at any cost to a much sharper focus on quality,” said Harry Evans, a partner at law firm Freshfields, in a Reuters report.
Evans added that deal activity could remain resilient through next year because of a strong pipeline.
Investors advised to be more selective with the AI trade
The mounting concerns have prompted questions about whether the strongest phase of the AI investment trade has passed.
“As we have highlighted previously, we think the AI thematic is entering a more mature phase, where valuations, funding requirements, competitive threats, regulation, and revenue visibility are coming under much greater scrutiny,” a team of strategists at Barclays led by Emmanuel Cau said, MarketWatch reported.
“It is certainly conceivable that the best of the AI thematic trade may be behind us, and therefore we think investors should be far more selective.”
Barclays continues to recommend balanced sector allocations, no longer viewing AI stocks as a “one-way trade”.
The bank advises investors to retain exposure to major technology companies ahead of further third-quarter earnings reports, while favouring businesses with proven business models, strong balance sheets, visible revenue streams and reasonable valuations.
Meta Platforms and Tesla are scheduled to report results after the market closes on October 21, becoming the first of the Magnificent Seven companies to release earnings this reporting season.
The group also includes Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft and Nvidia.
Barclays also sees Europe as a potential source of diversification if the AI trade weakens further, as markets less exposed to the investment theme could provide some protection.
The central question for investors is increasingly whether AI demand can translate into sustainable earnings and cash flow at valuations that justify the capital being deployed.
As financing becomes more expensive and scrutiny of returns intensifies, the market may increasingly reward companies with stronger balance sheets and clearer paths to profitability rather than those simply promising rapid growth.
The post The AI trade is changing: here's how to play it now appeared first on Invezz
SanDisk’s slide is not a NAND price break. The shares closed Friday, 16 October 2026, at $1,299.30, down $95.53, or 6.85 percent, from Thursday’s $1,394.83. Seven straight lower closes, starting 8 October, leave the stock $393.12, or 23.23 percent, under the 7 October close of $1,692.42. The last 90 daily log-returns, carried across the 52 New York sessions from 19 October through 31 December, give a bull of $2,532.60, a base of $1,133.12 and a bear of $662.86.
The missing fact is the product under the headline. CXMT’s year-end claim, as reported from its president Cao Kanyu, is a denser DRAM cell in a server DDR5 module, not a NAND contract cut. Rich Smith wrote on 15 October that SanDisk does not make DRAM at all. Friday’s log-return was about 0.95 of one sample standard deviation on the last 90 sessions: a large day inside the recent range, not a break in it.
Key facts
- Friday 16 October 2026 official close $1,299.30, down $95.53, or 6.85 percent, from $1,394.83. Open $1,348.82, high $1,362.35, low $1,296.19, volume 8,954,661. Source: Nasdaq historical prices, saved 17 October 2026. The historical last row is 16 October. The quote page had labeled the trade 15 October.
- Seven lower closes from 8 October through 16 October. From the 7 October close of $1,692.42 the drop is $393.12, or 23.23 percent. Same Nasdaq file, saved 17 October 2026.
- Nasdaq summary saved 17 October 2026: market cap $188,824,257,223, one-year target $2,200.00, 52-week range $136.29 to $2,354.39, average volume 10,783,717. The $2,354.39 print is the 22 June session high. That day’s close was $2,273.73. The highest close in the file is $2,335.00 on 25 June.
- Fiscal Q4 ended 3 July 2026: revenue $8.965 billion, up 51 percent sequentially, about two-thirds from higher pricing. Non-GAAP diluted earnings $39.25. GAAP gross margin 84.6 percent. Datacenter revenue $2.977 billion, up 103 percent. Source: Sandisk results release, 5 August 2026.
- Q1 fiscal 2027 guide in that release: revenue $10.30 billion to $10.80 billion, non-GAAP gross margin 83.0 to 85.0 percent, non-GAAP earnings $44.00 to $46.00, about 155 million diluted shares. The $10.55 billion midpoint is 17.68 percent above $8.965 billion.
- Nasdaq’s quote file, saved 17 October 2026, lists an earnings date of 29 October 2026. The seven down sessions sit after the July quarter the company has already reported.
- Cash was $4.762 billion and long-term debt was zero at 3 July 2026. Shares outstanding were 149 million. Remaining buyback authorization was $15.5 billion as of 5 August. Source: the same Sandisk release. No October release fetched here updates those figures.
- On 14 October SanDisk named itself the exclusive flash provider for Meta VR glasses launching in Spring 2027. The note did not mention CXMT, NAND prices, or the share decline. Source: Sandisk release, Milpitas, 14 October 2026.
What just happened, and why the obvious reading is wrong
The obvious reading is that a Chinese memory rival cut the NAND price and the stock admitted it. From the 7 October close of $1,692.42 the next seven simple declines were 4.90, 1.72, 5.97, 0.34, 5.33, 0.61 and 6.85 percent.
The sample standard deviation of the last 90 daily log-returns is 0.07435, about 7.4 percent. Friday’s log-return, the natural log of $1,299.30 over $1,394.83, is -0.07095, or 0.95 of that deviation. The unusual part is the streak: 7 October, at $1,692.42, had itself been an up day from $1,660.46.
The technology item that travelled with the selling is the wrong product. Tom’s Hardware reported that CXMT president Cao Kanyu said the first 4F-squared product, a server DDR5 module, is due by year-end. The Yicai account says the cell is not yet commercialized, that vertical transistors cut the footprint by about one-third on paper, and that no speeds or capacities were given.
Rich Smith, a contributing Motley Fool analyst, wrote on 15 October: “Sandisk doesn’t actually make DRAM at all.” The same paragraph says SanDisk manufactures NAND flash instead. He cited TrendForce DRAM shares of about 9.5 percent for CXMT, 39.4 percent for Samsung, 24.9 percent for SK Hynix and 23.3 percent for Micron. SanDisk is not on that list.
His Friday piece still tied the selling to fear of CXMT and put the week at a 15 percent loss while the session was open. The saved closes, measured from 7 October, are down 23.23 percent.
Who is exposed
Equity holders are first. Nasdaq’s saved summary puts market cap at $188,824,257,223. Divided by Friday’s $1,299.30, that is about 145.3 million shares, against 149 million outstanding on 3 July and about 155 million diluted shares in the Q1 guide. No October filing fetched here closes that gap, and the September insider sales were plan filings, not this tape.
Cash was $4.762 billion at 3 July and long-term debt was zero, down from $1.829 billion a year earlier. Fourth-quarter repurchases were $4.524 billion, and $15.5 billion of authorization remained on 5 August. If that authorization were still unused, Friday’s price would turn it into about 11.9 million shares, roughly 8 percent of the July count. No mid-October release updates it.
July-quarter customers were three books. Edge revenue was $5.432 billion, or 60.6 percent of the quarter. Datacenter was $2.977 billion, or 33.2 percent. Consumer was $556 million, or 6.2 percent, and it fell while the other two rose.
Micron holders are a read-across, not the same position. Micron sells DRAM and NAND, while SanDisk, separated from Western Digital on 21 February 2025, describes itself as the NAND company. Micron’s last reported quarter is the industry print already on the desk. The NAND piece of that quarter is a comparison, not a SanDisk forecast.
What the tape and the August release show
No NAND price break was in the pages fetched for this close. The tape and the 5 August release answer a different question than the headline.
| Item | Obvious reading | What the record shows |
|---|---|---|
| Friday’s move | A NAND-news break | $1,299.30, down 6.85 percent. Log-return -0.07095, or 0.95 of the last-90 sample deviation |
| The streak | One shock over a week | Seven lower closes from 8 October, each inside one sample deviation. From $1,692.42 to $1,299.30, down 23.23 percent |
| CXMT | A denser chip aimed at SanDisk | Server DDR5 DRAM, 4F-squared. No speeds or capacities in the Tom’s Hardware account |
| This week’s company note | Management addressed the selloff | 14 October: Meta VR flash cards for Spring 2027. No price comment and no CXMT comment |
| Last guide | Margins are rolling over | 5 August: Q1 revenue $10.30 billion to $10.80 billion, non-GAAP gross margin 83 to 85 percent |
| June high | The bull, waiting | 22 June intraday high $2,354.39. Close that day $2,273.73. Highest close $2,335.00 on 25 June. This bull is $2,532.60 |
| Nasdaq target | The title number | $2,200.00 on the saved summary. $332.60 under this bull and $1,066.88 over this base |
The 5 August release is still the last full operating picture. Revenue of $8.965 billion was up 51 percent from $5.950 billion, and about two-thirds of that $3.015 billion sequential gain came from higher pricing.
The Q1 guide is not a collapse: the $10.55 billion midpoint is 17.68 percent above the quarter just printed. The 13 August investor day repeated the tight-supply claim, and the night of those results already showed a strong quarter the stock could sell.
What SanDisk and the named analysts have said
David Goeckeler, chairman and chief executive, last spoke in the 5 August release, not this week. He said: “We closed fiscal 2026 with a leading technology portfolio, established datacenter as a key growth pillar, and deepened our customer partnerships.” He added: “Our technology and products are well positioned to create value for our customers and generate growing and durable free cash flow.” The lines do not mention CXMT or the share price.
On the same call, as transcribed by The Motley Fool, he said: “I think mid-80s gross margin, I would characterize as a fair return.” He also said, “In ’23, we are having very different earnings calls than we’re having now.” No October document fetched here updates that call.
The Motley Fool’s 12 October piece quotes chief financial officer Luis Visoso calling the guided sequential gain more storage shipped and “modest price increases.” That is the Fool’s quotation of the call. The same piece says TrendForce expects NAND contract prices to climb another 15 percent to 20 percent in the October-to-December quarter. A TrendForce sheet dated 16 October was not saved here, so that range stays the Fool’s citation.
Susan Park, vice president of product management for consumer products, is the company voice from this week. In the 14 October release she said: “We are thrilled to be the exclusive storage provider to help Meta power the future of virtual reality.” The cards “integrate seamlessly with new Meta VR Glasses offering immediate access to additional storage capacity.” The glasses launch in Spring 2027. That day’s close fell 5.33 percent, from $1,482.33 to $1,403.34, and the release does not mention it.
Jordan Klein, a TMT specialist at Mizuho, wrote on 13 October in a note carried by Yahoo Finance: “I would not be selling or in a panic if I owned MU, SNDK, SKHY or Samsung over comments yesterday by CXMT sr mgmt. about their new advanced DDR5 design roadmap. To me this changed nothing near term.” He added: “A year-end product introduction can’t be directly compared with Samsung’s reported 2028 mass-production target. A launch doesn’t establish manufacturing maturity, yields, or cost competitiveness.” He was talking about DRAM.
John Tinsman, founder of AOTInvest and portfolio manager of the AOT Growth and Innovation ETF, posted on 12 October: “I don’t buy into this hype but as a result today memory makers are trading down.” He had SanDisk down about 6 percent. Monday’s official close was $1,487.33, down 5.97 percent from $1,581.82.
A BazaarBrief post that afternoon said SanDisk is a NAND company that fell with the group anyway. A Ticker Report post on Friday printed $1,313.24, which is not the $1,299.30 close, and called the CXMT concern indirect.
John Ballard, at The Motley Fool on 16 October, sketched $4,128 over the next year or so if storage demand keeps outrunning supply. That figure is his path, not the bull below, and Nasdaq’s $2,200.00 target is a separate street mark.
The macro tension is real, and it is still not a NAND print
Smith’s Friday piece adds inflation, not a wafer price. He wrote that September consumer prices rose 3.7 percent year over year, 10 basis points faster than expected, and that higher inflation can push the Federal Reserve toward higher rates. That is his account of the Labor Department release, not a table saved here. SanDisk’s long-term debt was zero at 3 July, so a rate story is about the customer’s financing, not SanDisk’s own debt.
Pricing did about two-thirds of the last sequential revenue jump while consumer revenue was already falling. The Meta card does not replace the $8.409 billion of July edge and datacenter revenue. The 14 October risk factors name trade policy, tariffs, pricing, competition and Kioxia, which is boilerplate, and the dated test is still the 29 October call.
Bull, base, and bear into 31 December
The title bull, base and bear are distribution maths on SanDisk’s own closes. They are not Ballard’s $4,128 and not Nasdaq’s $2,200.00. The 22 June intraday high of $2,354.39 is a traded price, not this bull of $2,532.60 or this bear of $662.86.
The inputs are the last 90 daily log-returns, ending on the move from $1,394.83 to $1,299.30 and starting after the 9 June close of $1,646.54. The mean, mu, is -0.00263167. Sigma, the sample standard deviation using 89 in the divisor, is 0.07435442.
N is 52, from Monday 19 October through Thursday 31 December 2026, with weekends out. The full closures skipped are Thanksgiving on 26 November and Christmas on 25 December. Early closes on 27 November and 24 December still count, and the month split is 10, 20 and 22.
The square root of 52 is 7.21110, so 52 times mu is -0.136847, 1.5 sigma times that root is 0.804266, and one sigma times it is 0.536177. Drift is smaller than the upside shock, so the bull can clear a spot whose recent average day was down. This is not financial advice.
Base is $1,299.30 times e to the power of -0.136847, or times 0.872104, which is $1,133.12. That is $166.18 under the close, or 12.79 percent. Bull is $1,299.30 times e to the power of -0.136847 plus 0.804266, or times 1.949200, which is $2,532.60, up $1,233.30, or 94.92 percent.
Bear is $1,299.30 times e to the power of -0.136847 minus 0.536177, or times 0.510163, which is $662.86. That is $636.44 under the close, or 48.98 percent. The bull stayed above the spot, so the drift was kept. Nasdaq’s $2,200.00 sits $332.60 under this bull, and Ballard’s $4,128 sits $1,595.40 above it.
| Case | Price | Versus the $1,299.30 close | What has to be true |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | $2,532.60 | Up $1,233.30, or 94.92 percent | The recent drift runs for 52 sessions and the close finishes 1.5 standard deviations above that path. That is above the 25 June close of $2,335.00. No new NAND contract is an input. |
| Base | $1,133.12 | Down $166.18, or 12.79 percent | Only the drift. Mu stays -0.00263167 for 52 sessions. NAND prices do not have to fall. This is not the $2,200.00 street target. |
| Bear | $662.86 | Down $636.44, or 48.98 percent | The same drift, minus one standard deviation over 52 sessions. A left tail of the recent tape, not the $136.29 published low and not a management case. |
What happens next
Monday 19 October is the first dated test. One sample deviation, about 7.4 percent or roughly $97 on Friday’s price, is an ordinary day on this tape, not a forecast that Monday moves $97. A repeated CXMT headline with no new NAND price can still extend the streak. That would be volatility, not evidence of a cut contract.
Thursday 29 October 2026 is the earnings date on the saved Nasdaq file. August guided the quarter to $10.30 billion to $10.80 billion and a non-GAAP gross margin of 83 to 85 percent. A print inside that range matches a pre-selloff guide. It does not prove NAND prices broke between 8 and 16 October.
The causal test that day is the December-quarter language. If management still describes pricing as up, the way Visoso’s “modest price increases” described the guided quarter, the NAND-break reading fails on the company’s words. A cut to the margin range would give the bear a fundamental input the Friday file does not have.
Thursday 31 December 2026 is the horizon. Drift alone lands at $1,133.12. Drift minus one standard deviation lands at $662.86. Drift plus 1.5 standard deviations lands at $2,532.60, above the June close and the June intraday high, and none of the three requires a new broker target.
Frequently asked questions
Is SanDisk’s slide a NAND price break, or the stock’s own volatility, and where do the year-end bull and bear sit?
It is the stock’s own volatility, not a documented NAND price break. The bull is $2,532.60 and the bear is $662.86, with a base of $1,133.12, off the $1,299.30 close on 16 October 2026. The path uses 52 sessions through 31 December and the last 90 daily log-returns. Friday’s log-return was 0.95 of one sample deviation, and CXMT’s reported product is a DRAM module.
What did SanDisk close at on Friday 16 October 2026?
The official close was $1,299.30, down $95.53, or 6.85 percent, from Thursday’s $1,394.83. The Nasdaq historical file saved 17 October shows an open of $1,348.82, a high of $1,362.35, a low of $1,296.19 and volume of 8,954,661. An intraday post at $1,313.24 is not this close, and it is not a bar on the chart.
Does CXMT’s denser cell change SanDisk’s NAND price?
Not in any document fetched for this piece. Cao Kanyu’s reported product is a server DDR5 module on a 4F-squared DRAM cell, with no speeds or capacities in the Tom’s Hardware account. Rich Smith wrote on 15 October that SanDisk does not make DRAM and manufactures NAND instead. The 14 October release was a Meta storage deal, not a wafer-price update.
What is the base case into 31 December?
The base is $1,133.12, which is $166.18, or 12.79 percent, under Friday’s close. It is $1,299.30 times e to the power of 52 times the mean daily log-return of -0.00263167, and nothing else. NAND prices do not have to fall for that path. The bull adds 1.5 standard deviations, the bear subtracts one, and the base is not Nasdaq’s $2,200.00 target.
Are the $2,200 target and the $4,128 figure the bull case?
No. Nasdaq’s saved summary lists a one-year target of $2,200.00, which is $332.60 below this bull of $2,532.60. John Ballard wrote on 16 October that the shares could be worth $4,128 if storage demand keeps outrunning supply. That sketch is $1,595.40 above this bull, both figures sit outside this distribution, and the bear here is $662.86.
What is the next dated test for this SanDisk stock prediction?
Nasdaq’s quote file lists an earnings date of 29 October 2026. The August guide was $10.30 billion to $10.80 billion of revenue and a non-GAAP gross margin of 83 percent to 85 percent. A result inside that range would match a guide set before the seven-session slide. The comment that would change the NAND-break reading is the December-quarter price language.
The retail sector has had a tough year. Many shoppers have cut back on spending, and rising shipping costs are squeezing company profits.
Ocean freight rates are currently up about 8%, and the spike is expected to hit retailer margins almost immediately through domestic fuel surcharges, according to a Bank of America industry note.
Recent Citi data reported by Reuters showed that in September, luxury credit card spending dropped by 6% from the previous year. However, Ralph Lauren (RL) is not feeling the effects as much as other companies.
Some Wall Street analysts have stayed positive on Ralph Lauren through most of 2026. On Oct. 12, 2026, Bank of America analyst Kendall Toscano reaffirmed her Buy rating and kept her $450 price target on RL.
Her reason for believing in the stock even though the whole retail sector is slowing down is simple. Ralph Lauren skews to a higher-income customer base that has remained resilient and is still spending, despite tougher economic conditions.
Why Ralph Lauren’s shoppers are still buying
Lower- and middle-income households continue to be strained, according to a recent KPMG note.
Toscano wrote that the “RL core customer is doing just fine.” She pointed out that the business still has steady demand across its stores, with North America showing a solid increase in the first quarter.
Europe growth was more modest, with BofA expecting continued share gains despite macro pressure, and Asia, led by strong demand in China, is driving most of the company’s growth, as Ralph Lauren reported.
Also read: BofA gives Starbucks investors key customer insight before earnings
She also noted that “impressive global brand momentum remains intact,” and that the company beat earnings expectations by about 7% in its fiscal 2027 first quarter.
BofA believes the company will beat expectations again when it reports second-quarter results in early November.
What’s behind BofA’s $450 price target
Toscano thinks the worries about shipping costs that have pushed the stock lower are unnecessary.
Shipping makes up only about 5% of what it costs Ralph Lauren to make its goods, Benzinga reported. And the company already agreed on fixed prices for its ocean shipping earlier in the year, so sudden fuel spikes won’t hit it as hard.
Related: Starbucks CEO reveals what he thinks will keep customers coming back
She also expects Ralph Lauren to gain more profit from every sale next quarter. Toscano forecasts roughly a 90-basis-point expansion in operating margin and a 60-basis-point gain in gross margin year-over-year, driven by higher average unit retail prices and a favorable product mix.
“RL has a track record of expanding margins through significantly greater headwinds like tariffs,” Toscano wrote.
How Ralph Lauren actually makes its money
Some of you might already be familiar with Ralph Lauren. The company designs and sells premium clothing, accessories, home goods, and fragrances under brands like Polo Ralph Lauren and Lauren Ralph Lauren.
More Retail Stocks:
- Ross Stores enters a new market as customers hunt for low prices
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In the first quarter of fiscal 2027, the company brought in about $1.96 billion in revenue, a roughly 14% increase from a year earlier. That shows its sales are still up.
Ralph Lauren also charges more without losing customers by improving its product quality. The company’s average selling prices have roughly doubled over the last eight years, but only about 25% of that came from charging more for the same items.
What everyday RL investors should watch
Ralph Lauren is a good reminder that some retail businesses are still up. If you’re interested in the stock, watch for its operating profit margin when it reports second-quarter results. Beating expectations there again would back up BofA’s call.
There’s always a risk involved, though. Ralph Lauren’s European sales could weaken further, slowing its overall sales. That’s why I often advise investors to sit tight until the earnings report, when you can confirm the trend.
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The Leafs look to bounce back when they take on the Islanders. Watch Saturday Night Hockey on Sportsnet and follow using the NHL Live Tracker.
Trump Media stock continued its strong downward trend, reaching its lowest level on record as headwinds jumped. DJT fell to $6.9, down by 60% from its highest point this year and 33% below its highest point in August. This sell-off may continue as the company faces some major headwinds.
Trump Media is facing headwinds
DJT stock has continued its strong downward trend this month as the company faces major headwinds. One of them is that President Donald Trump’s approval rating has continued to fall because of the rising inflation. A report released this week showed that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.7% in September. Core inflation rose 2.7% last month.
Trump’s approval rate has plunged to a record low, with his net approval moving to minus 27. 34% of the voters approve his work, while 61% of them disapprove. Trump is being opposed by Republicans, Democrats, and Independents because of his corruption and the ongoing US-Iran war.
The ongoing approval rating drop is also affecting traffic to the Truth Social website. SimilarWeb data shows that the website had 15.31 million visits in September. While this increase was an 11% monthly jump, it remains much lower than its competitors. For example, X and Reddit had 4.18 billion and 3.82 billion, respectively.
Trump Media is also not making money. The most recent results showed that it made a net loss of $238 million in the June quarter and $643 million in the first six months of the year. Large advertisers have stayed away from Truth Social, while the recently launched API solution will not make it a lot of money in the long term.
DJT stock has also slumped because Bitcoin has lost momentum. Bitcoin has dropped from a high of $87,000 earlier this month to the current $81,000. Trump Media is the 10th-largest Bitcoin holder in the world, with 12,062 coins. Its coins are now valued at $977 million.
Trump Media is also highly overvalued, considering that it has not made money at the peak of Trump’s presidency. A $2 billion valuation for a company losing substantial sums of money per quarter is quite expensive.
DJT stock technicals point to more downside
Trump Media stock chart | Source: TradingView
The daily chart shows that Trump Media stock has been in a strong sell-off in the past few months. It has dropped from $10.56 in August to the current $6.99.
The stock has dropped below the 50-day moving average. It has also formed an inverted cup-and-handle pattern, a common continuation sign.
DJT stock’s Average Directional Index (ADX) has risen to 21, its highest point 21, its highest point since August. Therefore, the stock will likely continue falling, potentially to the key support level of $5. A drop below that level will point to further downside, towards $3.
The post DJT stock flashes a warning sign as Trump Media risks build appeared first on Invezz
Fed Chair Warsh’s non-committal stance weakened the US Dollar, boosted foreign currencies, and left inflation and rate expectations in focus.
Fed Chair Warsh Adopts a Non-Committal Stance and Shifts Away From Forward Guidance
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh signaled a notable shift in communication strategy during his remarks in Bangkok, stating explicitly that he does not prejudge upcoming meetings and emphasizing that the Fed is actively moving away from previewing its policy decisions. By offering no explicit forward guidance on the future trajectory of interest rates, Warsh’s non-committal commentary immediately impacted market sentiment. Consequently, market pricing for a potential rate hike at the October 27–28 meeting plummeted from roughly 28% down to about 15% or 16%, though a December rate increase remained heavily priced in near 90%. This dovish-by-omission approach introduced immediate selling pressure on the greenback, driving the Dollar Index (DXY) down toward 101.65—its lowest level since October 1—as it headed toward its first weekly decline in five weeks.
Divergent Global Central Bank Expectations and Currency Responses
The shift in US monetary policy expectations rippled across global foreign exchange markets, amplifying divergences between major central banks. In the United Kingdom, resilient economic data and subdued signs of second-round inflation drove a Reuters survey to show that 54 of 63 economists expect the Bank of England (BoE) to implement a 25-basis-point rate hike in November. This hawkish outlook pushed the British Pound (GBP/USD) above 1.3350, registering gains of over 0.61%. Simultaneously, modest narrowing in front-end Eurozone-US yield spreads, catalyzed by Warsh’s remarks, provided upward momentum for the Euro (EUR/USD) and positioned the currency for a potential bullish weekly reversal. Broadly speaking, Warsh welcomed a synchronized global tightening cycle with no free riders, allowing key interest rate differentials—such as the gap between US rates and the European Central Bank’s 2.5% rate—to remain stable.
Persistent Inflation Risks, Geopolitical Pressures, and Cautious Safe-Haven Sentiment
Underpinning these currency and interest rate movements are stubborn macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds. Hotter-than-expected US Consumer Price Index (CPI) readings and a stronger-than-forecast 0.7% expansion in September industrial production underscore that underlying price pressures remain sticky and above the Fed’s 2% target. These domestic inflation risks are further aggravated by elevated Middle East supply concerns, highlighted by deadlocked US-Iran negotiations and escalating tensions between Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Houthis. Meanwhile, concerns over debt-funded AI investments triggered a sharp flight to safety, pulling the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield below 5.10% and supporting safe-haven assets. Despite lower yields and a softer US dollar, gold (XAU/USD) struggled to secure a robust recovery, trading below $4,200 as market participants continuously weighed safe-haven demand against the lingering prospect of future Fed tightening.
Top economic events for next week:
10/18/2026 00:00:00 – IMF Meeting: This high-profile international gathering brings together global financial leaders and central bankers to discuss macroeconomic policies, global growth projections, and financial stability, setting a critical tone for cross-border currency sentiment.
10/19/2026 02:00:00 – Gross Domestic Product (YoY): This major high-impact Chinese growth metric measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy, serving as a primary indicator of overall economic health and global demand.
10/19/2026 12:30:00 – Consumer Price Index (YoY): As Canada’s primary gauge of inflation, this high-impact index tracks the average change in prices paid by consumers for a market basket of goods and services, directly influencing Bank of Canada rate decisions.
10/20/2026 01:15:00 – PBoC Interest Rate Decision: This medium-impact monetary policy announcement by the People’s Bank of China establishes benchmark lending rates, heavily steering liquidity, domestic credit conditions, and broader Asian market trajectories.
10/20/2026 06:00:00 – Employment Change (3M): This high-impact UK labor market report measures the net change in the number of employed people over a three-month period, offering vital clues regarding wage pressures and overall economic momentum.
10/21/2026 06:00:00 – Consumer Price Index (YoY): This high-impact UK inflation release tracks shifting price pressures across the British economy, acting as a primary catalyst for Bank of England policy expectations and currency valuations.
10/21/2026 16:30:00 – ECB’s President Lagarde speech: This high-impact public appearance by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde provides critical guidance on the future path of Eurozone monetary policy and economic outlooks.
10/21/2026 21:45:00 – Consumer Price Index (YoY): This high-impact quarterly New Zealand inflation report measures consumer price variations, heavily dictating the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s upcoming interest rate adjustments.
10/22/2026 12:30:00 – Initial Jobless Claims: This medium-impact US labor market indicator tracks the number of individuals filing for first-time unemployment benefits, offering timely insight into the health and resilience of the American job market.
10/22/2026 14:00:00 – Consumer Confidence: This medium-impact European survey gauges consumer optimism regarding overall economic activity, employment conditions, and personal financial health, which strongly correlates with future consumer spending trends.
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Jim Cramer’s opinion on VF Corp has shifted.
The CNBC host said investors should buy VF Corp (VFC), the owner of Vans, The North Face, and Timberland, after Piper Sandler and Truist both upgraded the beaten-down apparel stock and set $20 price targets.
The reason is Vans.
The sneaker brand has been VF Corp’s biggest turnaround problem, with sales falling nearly 50% since fiscal 2022, according to CNBC. But new consumer data, stronger store traffic, and improving direct sales are giving Wall Street something it has not had for years: evidence that Vans may finally be finding a bottom.
“These upgrades have changed my mind about VF Corp and Kontoor,” Cramer said on CNBC’s “Mad Money.”
“Down here, I think both stocks are buys.”
The call is noteworthy, since Cramer said that given the danger to consumer spending posed by increasing interest rates and oil costs, he has often been reluctant to suggest clothing companies.
This time, he believes VF Corp’s value already accounts for a large portion of that suffering. Cramer also thinks investors may see Vans quite differently if the company is actually coming around.
Vans gives Cramer a reason to change his mind
Cramer’s change seems to have been mostly influenced by Piper Sandler’s fall teen poll.
After years of decline in the study, Vans maintained its seventh-place ranking among male teens’ preferred footwear brands. Vans rose to tenth place among male teenagers with higher incomes.
It may not sound dramatic, but it is for VF Corp.
Related: Jim Cramer exposes harsh truth about retirement investing
Vans’ sales have decreased for four fiscal years in a row, with double-digit drops in the last three. Bracken Darrell’s efforts to revive the brand were hampered by a company that was previously one of VF’s best.
Additionally, Piper Sandler discovered that teens are becoming more interested in non-athletic footwear, which might benefit Vans as buyers shift toward more fashionable looks.
Another positive indicator comes from store traffic. Vans’ September traffic was at its highest level since February 2023, according to the statistics covered by CNBC.
Truist perceives a comparable opportunity. The company also set a $20 target and upgraded VF Corp to a buy-equivalent rating, claiming that Vans would profit from the shift away from sports footwear, The Fly noted.
Both goals suggest significant gains from VF Corp’s closing price of $17 on Oct. 15.
Cramer’s response was forceful. “If the teen survey says buy VF Corp, then I have to say buy, buy, buy,” he said.
VF Corp’s own results provide signs that the company could be heading in the same way. Vans’ revenue still declined 8% in VF’s fiscal first quarter, or 9% on a constant-currency basis. But its Americas direct-to-consumer business continued growing, while wholesale weakness drove the overall decline, according to VF Corp.
Explosive growth is not necessary to start the Vans turnaround. Still, traffic, customer interest, and direct demand must stop declining before sales may rebound.
Wall Street is beginning to pay attention to those exact indications.
VF Corp has more going right than Vans
When you consider Vans alongside the rest of VF Corp, Cramer’s thesis becomes more compelling.
The North Face revenue increased 6% in the latest reported quarter, while Timberland grew 4%. Vans remained down 8%.
VF Corp also reported that net debt fell $1.1 billion, or 20%, from a year earlier. Management raised its fiscal 2027 constant-currency revenue outlook to growth of at least 2%, compared with its previous forecast of 1% to 2%.
CEO Bracken Darrell said Vans’ Americas direct-to-consumer business continued to grow and that the company expects Vans wholesale performance to improve significantly during the second half of the fiscal year.
Those are important pieces of Cramer’s call.
His wager is not limited to the possibility that youngsters may once again like Vans footwear. While early signs at Vans improve, VF Corp has been reducing debt, improving its outlook, and receiving growth from Timberland and The North Face.
Cramer brought up value as well. VF Corp is trading at around 16 times estimated 2027 profits, according to CNBC. Cramer said that the share price already reflects the challenging consumer environment.
“Normally, I’d hesitate to recommend apparel stocks at this point in the business cycle,” Cramer added, explaining that VF Corp and Kontoor Brands have already fallen sharply from their highs and trade at depressed valuations.
This results in a really straightforward thesis.
Vans is not necessary for VF Corp to regain its position as America’s most popular shoe brand. Timberland and the North Face are already expanding. Debt is decreasing. The management has improved their forecast for revenue.
Yet the arithmetic around VF Corp alters significantly if Vans can go from being a hindrance to being just steady and ultimately resume growing.
For this reason, two analyst upgrades, improved store traffic, and a teen poll were sufficient to persuade Cramer to rethink his view.
Investors questioned how much worse Vans might become for years.
Now, Cramer is speculating that the more lucrative topic could be what happens if things eventually improve.
So Gavin McKenna was benched on Thursday and played less than seven minutes against the Sabres. Justin Bourne takes a detailed look at what the 18-year-old did with his ice time to try and make sense of the benching.
Top real estate companies are rallying today. Zillow Group stock jumped 11%, while Better Home & Finance and Opendoor surged 33% and 17%, respectively. Other major names, including UWM Holdings and PennyMac Holdings, also traded in the green.
Zillow Group, Better Home, and Opendoor jumped as bond yields fell
While these stocks jumped, they remain well below their highs for the year. Zillow has dropped by 62%, while Better Home & Finance and Opendoor have slumped by 85% and 72% in the last 12 months.
The rebound coincided with the retreat in bond yields. Data show that the ten-year yield dropped to 5.06%, while the five-year fell to 4.86%. The two have dropped substantially from their highest points this month.
US bond yields dropped even after the US published strong consumer inflation data. The report showed that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped to 3.7% last month. Core inflation rose 2.6% in September. Another report released today showed that the producer price index (PPI) rose from 0.5% in August to 1.3% in September, higher than the expected 0.6%.
Despite these numbers, market participants don’t expect the bank to hike interest rates this month. Odds of the bank leaving interest rates unchanged moved to 72%. Most analysts expect the bank to hike interest rates by 0.25% in the December meeting.
The falling bond yields have led to a brief retreat in mortgage rates. The average mortgage rate dropped slightly to 7.3%. Despite this, these rates have remained at the highest level in nearly three years.
Lower mortgage rates would boost companies like Zillow Group, Opendoor, and Better Home & Finance. Indeed, the rising mortgage rates explain why these stocks have plunged by double digits this year.
Mortgage rates have impacted these companies
The soaring mortgage rates explain why these stocks have been under pressure this year. Zillow, the biggest portal, has suffered substantially this year as demand for homes has done. SimilarWeb data shows that its website traffic dropped by 11% in September to 317 million.
Its recent results showed that its revenue rose by 18% to $772 million, while its net loss jumped to $4 million. Analysts expect the upcoming results to show that its revenue rose 11% to $754 million, a sign that its business is slowing.
Opendoor’s business has been one of the most pressured companies because of the rising mortgage rates. In a recent statement, the company’s CEO clarified that the company was not near its breakeven point. She said:
“The worsening housing market at the end of August pushed us roughly six to eight weeks behind on our Adjusted EBITDA guidepost, meaning the twelve-month window in which we expect to be adjusted EBITDA profitable now starts this quarter rather than last quarter.”
Better Home & Finance has also come under pressure as higher interest rates have led to a dip in originations. While its second quarter had strong growth, the estimate is that its revenue will grow by 12% to $50 million. Looking forward, these stocks will remain under pressure once the ongoing dip-buying ends.
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